Case Studies Haio, Unisem, MPHB.

Stock markets performance around the world has been globalized. For example, the 2008 Financial Tsunami was originated from the U.S, and spread throughout the world. The current debt worries in the European countries would do the same as well, if the European markets enter into a bear run. Therefore, it is almost impossible for the Malaysian market to be exempted from this globalized movement. This week, we shall continue to stay some Case Studies to see how the broad market is affecting their performance.

Revision of last week's Case Study: Haio-7668: In Downtrend.

Chart 1: Haio-7668 (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

As shown on chart 1, after forming a lower-high, price of Haio fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the 14, 21, 31 EMA is now serving as the dynamic resistance for Haio, suggesting that Haio is now in downtrend.

As indicated by A, after rebounded from RM3.80~RM3.85 support, price of Haio failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus suggesting that the downtrend remains intact. Technically, price has to break above the dynamic resistance with strong volume, in order to break away from the downtrend, or else, the technical outlook shall remains bearish biased.

Therefore, if price should continue resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA and break below RM3.80, it would be making a 3 months new low, thus a signal suggesting to cut loss, because the next support is seen at RM3.46 level. Resistance for Haio is at RM 4.36~RM4.40.

4Q Rolling PER	15.7 times	Dividend Yield	10.29%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	42 sen	11.11%	11.96%
30/04/2008	40 sen	11.17%	12.97%
30/04/2007	18 sen	8.11%	11.29%
30/04/2006	8 sen	6.35%	7.06%
30/04/2005	6 sen	6.00%	3.95%

Table 1: Haio-7668, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Unisem-5005: Short term uptrend ended, but the mid-long term remains intact.

Chart 2: Unisem-5005 (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

As shown on Chart 2, price of Unisem fell below the T1 uptrend line, suggesting that the T1 uptrend line has ended, and therefore, for those investors who has bought this share based on the T1 uptrend line, this is a signal to take profit or to cut loss. However, after breaking below T1, price of Unisem is finding its support at the T2 uptrend line, which is a longer-term uptrend line. Therefore, this shows that the shorter uptrend has ended, while the longer uptrend remains intact.

Despite the longer term uptrend remains intact, investors has to be clear of their own entry point or position, and must honor their own trading plan. When price should break below T1 uptrend, they should execute the cut-loss plan or at least reducing their position partially, and wait to see if price should rebound from the T2 line for the rest of their holding.

It is important to know that the risk of investors who bought based on the T1 line and T2 line is totally different. For example, if a person who entered with the T1 line signal, but refuse to cut-loss when price breaks below the T1 line, because he thinks that the T2 line is still intact, and he is suffering losses, while the investor who bought based on the T2 line signal is still in profit. Therefore, the risk profile of investor varies.

One of the most dangerous mind set is refusing to cut-loss and stubbornly holding in losing position(s). For example, a person who entered a position was initially wanted to take advantage of an uptrend, and later price breaks below the uptrend, but this person refuse to cut-loss, but trying to look for excuses or reasons to convince himself to be a 'long term investor', be it good earnings, dividend, contracts awarded, or anything that he could think of. But in reality, this person only want to break even, and if he was lucky, and price returned to his break-even point, he would sell and clear his position, and all the above reasons such as dividend, contracts, and good earnings would seem irrelevant anymore. This is a typical double standard of a loser, and the biggest account killer.

Nevertheless, if price of Unisem should also break below the T2 uptrend line, it means that longer term uptrend is also weakening, thus investors must honor their own trading plan. There is no buy signal yet for Unisem until a valid break out above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with strong volume.

4 Q Rolling PER	12.22 times	Dividend Yield	0.81%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	2.50 sen	1.14%	5.97%
31/12/2008	2.50 sen	3.57%	1.61%
31/12/2007	10.00 sen	6.06%	12.25%
31/12/2006	10.00 sen	6.06%	10.38%
31/12/2005	8.00 sen	5.76%	3.92%

Table 2: Unisem-5005, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

MPHB-3859: Dowtrend.

Chart 3: MPHB-3859 (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

As shown on chart 3, price of MPHB is currently staying below the falling T1 downtrend line, suggesting that the downtrend is still in place. Despite rebounding from RM2.00, price of MPHB has failed to break above the T1. Therefore, the rebound was merely a technical rebound, not a reversal. Meanwhile, while the downtrend is still intact, volume traded for MPHB is still low, thus implying the buying interest is relatively insufficient to off set the selling pressure of breaking even.

Technically, provided that the T1 line is still in place, the technical outlook for MPHB shall remains weak, until a valid break out above the T1 line. If price should break above the T1 line, it would break away from its downtrend, and possibly consolidate. As for a reversal signal, price has to break above the T1 line with strong volume. Current support for MPHB is at RM1.98～RM2.00 while the resistance is at RM2.17～RM2.18.

（4 Q Rolling PER	6.63 times	Dividend Yield	4.25%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	9.00 sen	4.66%	10.15%
31/12/2008	10.00 sen	9.26%	4.31%
31/12/2007	11.00 sen	4.74%	11.71%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	36.54%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	-69.12%

Table 3: MPHB-3859, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Generally, a stock or a market will take some time to form a reversal, from bullish to bearish, or vice-versa. There are signals and characteristics of a reversal, which is higher-low or lower-highs, followed by new high or new low. Therefore, by understanding these characteristics, one would not be buying too early nor exiting too late.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Supermx, TopGlov, Latexx.

Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average index fell sharply for a week since the beginning of May, but they managed to rebound after a massive sell down. As of 12th of May, the S&P 500 index is testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and if the S&P 500 should start falling from here, it would be forming a lower-high, thus an early sign of a downtrend formation. If the S&P and the Dow should forms a downtrend, it would most likely to bring down the Asian markets, and it is likely that our local market would be unaffected, and this applies to individual stocks as well. This week, we shall continue our study on Glove Stocks.

Supermx-7106: Temporary breaking away from the short term downtrend.

Chart 1:Supermx-7106 (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

As indicated by A, price of Supermx rebounded from RM 6.10 level, and later also breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the T1 short term downtrend line. Therefore, it has temporary broken away from the short term downtrend. However, despite breaking above these resistance lines, volume failed to increased significantly, and therefore, the breakout was rather weak.

Nonetheless, this is a result of a technical rebound which lead to breaking above the short term downtrend line, but it has not formed an uptrend yet. But still, this is generally a positive signal for if price should continue its sideways movement, sellers are feeling less fearful, thus not selling further down at a lower price.

With such low volume, price of Supermx is expected to stay in consolidation when preparing for a new movement again. Support for Supermx is at RM6.10~RM6.30 while the resistance is at RM7.25~RM7.45.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.45 times	Dividend Yield	1.59%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	11.00 sen	2.01%	15.92%
31/12/2008	3.25 sen	4.06%	5.58%
31/12/2007	1.90 sen	0.63%	13.85%
31/12/2006	6.50 sen	1.56%	10.49%
31/12/2005	6.50 sen	1.46%	12.74%

Table 1:Supermx-7106, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Topglov -7113: Technical rebound, testing short term downtrend line.

Chart 2: Topglov -7113, (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of Top Glove rebounded strongly after touching RM11.18 level, but it stopped at T1 short term downtrend line, suggesting that the short term downtrend remains intact, while still serving as the dynamic resistance together with the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

If price should remains resisted by these dynamic resistance line, it would form another lower-high, thus the downtrend would carry on. On the other hand, if price should break above these dynamic resistance, there is a chance of a consolidation thus, temporary breaking away from the downtrend.

As for a reversal signal, price has to break above the T1 line with strong volume, and stays above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, or else, any rebound below the dynamic resistance would considered as a technical rebound.

4 Q Rolling PER	15.52 times	Dividend Yield	1.79%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/08/2009	22.00 sen	3.17%	11.04%
31/08/2008	11.00 sen	2.71%	8.01%
31/08/2007	9.22 sen	1.31%	8.83%
31/08/2006	9.00 sen	1.04%	7.90%
31/08/2005	8.00 sen	1.60%	9.06%

Table 2: Topglov -7113, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Latexx-7064: Short term downtrend.

Chart 3: Latexx-7064 (15/01/2010～12/05/2010)

Both the above example, Supermx as well as Top Glove, have a chance of prolonging its consolidation thus temporary breaking away from the short term downtrend. However, as for Latexx, the downtrend remains intact while price movement remains weak.

As shown on chart 3, the T1 line as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA are still serving as the dynamic resistance for the downtrend, while price is still firmly below these dynamic resistance lines. The immediate support for Latexx is seen at RM3.60, and if price should break below this level, more downside movement is expected for Latexx, as it shows that all those investors who had bought above the RM3.60 and are still holding, would be making losses, thus the will of “breaking even” will be stronger than the will of “making a profit”; in other words, the selling pressure is expected to be strong.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.05 times	Dividend Yield	0.56%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	2 sen	0.53%	15.86%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	6.97%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	3.40%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	2.79%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	3.35%

Table 3: Latexx-7064, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Technically, when ever a stock trend has formed a lower-high, it tells us that the stock is either having technical correction or short term downtrend. If price should remains resisted by the falling trend line, the downtrend would continue. To break away from the downtrend, price has to break above the short term downtrend line with strong volume, or else a break out with thin volume is likely to be a false break out.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Haio, BJcorp, MRCB

When the broad market is falling, there will be more counters falling than counters rising, and therefore, the probability of losing money is higher. However, it does not necessary means that whenever a broad market is having its correction, it would be a signal to take profit. Nevertheless, investors should stay cautious, and watch if the correction of the broad market would damage the existing uptrend on your portfolio. If the uptrend of your stocks remains intact, it is a good idea to hold on to it, but if price should break below an uptrend, it is a good idea to reduce position. This week, we would like to take a look at some counters which is turning weaker from their previous uptrend, and study the process of turning weaker from a stronger trend.

Haio-7668: Forming downtrend.

Chart 1:Haio-7668 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As indicated by A and A', price of Haio formed a Lower-high, and later consolidated above the RM4.38 level. Despite being supported by the RM4.38 level, the consolidation was bearish biased, for the lower-high implies a weakening movement.

As indicated by B, price of Haio broke below RM4.38 level, suggesting that those who had bought and hold their position above RM4.38 are now making losses, thus the idea of breaking even is getting stronger. Therefore, there will be memory of breaking even at RM4.38, A' and A1 level.

Nevertheless, when price broke below the RM4.38 level, the 14, 21, 31 EMA was also falling while serving as a dynamic resistance. In other words, the technical outlook for Haio shall remain bearish biased until price should successful break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA with strong volume.

4 Q Rolling PER	15.7 times	Dividend Yield	10.29%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	42 sen	11.11%	11.96%
30/04/2008	40 sen	11.17%	12.97%
30/04/2007	18 sen	8.11%	11.29%
30/04/2006	8 sen	6.35%	7.06%
30/04/2005	6 sen	6.00%	3.95%

Table 1:Haio-7668, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

BJCORP-3395]：Forming Downtrend.

Chart 2: BJCORP-3395 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of JBCorp retreated after reaching its height of RM1.87 level, but managed to be supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA and rebounded from there. However, when price rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it has failed to return to its previous height, and formed a Lower-high, which forms the L1 line.

As indicated by A, after forming the L1 line, price of BJCorp also break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, confirming the formation of a downtrend while the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the L1 line are both serving as dynamic resistance. In short, the technical outlook for BJCorp is now bearish biased.

If price were to return to its uptrend, it has to break above these dynamic resistance with strong volume, or else, any rebound below the dynamic resistance would only be counted as technical rebound, not a reversal.

Leading PER	-75.49 times	Dividend Yield	2.18%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9.00 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0%	5.72%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0%	-24.33%
30/04/2005	0 sen	0%	-3.03%

Table 2: BJCORP-3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, net profit ratio.

Review of last week's Case Study:MRCB-1651 :T1 downtrend line remains intact.

Chart 3: MRCB-1651 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on chart 3, the T1 downtrend line is still intact, suggesting that price of MRCB is still trending down. As indicated by A, price of MRCB rebounded and tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the T1 line last week, but failed to break above these dynamic resistance. This has once again, proven that the technical outlook for MRCB is on the negative side.

Nevertheless, technically, provided price should remain resisted by these dynamic resistance, the bearish biased outlook is expected to carry on. If price should rebound but failed to break above these resistance line, the rebound would only be technical rebound, not a reversal. A valid break out above the T1 line has to be accompanied by strong volume, or else, the downtrend remains intact.

4 Q Rolling PER	39.79 times	Dividend Yield	0.66%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	1 sen	0.73%	3.76%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	-7.18%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	4.51%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	6.20%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	4.25%

Table 3: MRCB-1651, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Many investors had complaint that when the market turns downside, they don't have enough time to get out quickly. In fact, with the exception of Limit down, all downtrend needs time to form, and during the process of changing between the end of an uptrend to the beginning of a downtrend, there are specific characteristics, which is a very important aspect for investors to find out. With the skill in spotting these characteristics, there should be enough time for one to react. However, to pick up such skills, it takes years, and therefore, there are no short cut in this learning curve.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Supermx, TopGlove, Latexx

For the first time in 2 and a half months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as well as breaking below 11000, together with massive sell-off of markets across the glove, our local market sentiment is also affected, but the least damaged one. Nevertheless, many individual counters are suffering some losses, and this week, we shall look at the “winners” stocks since 2009, glove makers.

Supermx-7106: Forming Descending Triangle.

Chart 1:Supermx-7106 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on Chart 1, price of Supermx formed a Descending Triangle, with the L1 line being a dynamic resistance while the L1 (RM 6.60) is the support. A Descending Triangle suggests that price is consolidating but with some downside biased, because it has already formed a Lower-high, and therefore, it would confirm a formation of a downtrend when price should break below the L2 line.

As individual by A, price of Supermx is testing the RM6.60 level, and if it should break below the RM6.60 level, the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall continue serving as the dynamic resistance, thus the technical outlook for Supermx is expected to be weak.

On the other hand, if price should remains supported by the RM6.60 level, it would prolong the consolidation and break away from the L1 line, but however, it would be a sideways movement, not a bullish movement yet, unless volume should pick up significantly.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.08 times	Dividend Yield	1.65%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	11.00 sen	2.01%	15.92%
31/12/2008	3.25 sen	4.06%	5.58%
31/12/2007	1.90 sen	0.63%	13.85%
31/12/2006	6.50 sen	1.56%	10.49%
31/12/2005	6.50 sen	1.46%	12.74%

Table 1: Supermx-7106, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Topglov -7113: About to form and downtrend

Chart 2: Topglov -7113 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of Top Glove formed a Descending Triangle, with the L1 line being a dynamic resistance while the L2 (RM12.38) is serving as a support. The formation of this Descending Triangle suggests that price is consolidating but with weakness, for it has formed a Lower-high, which is the early sign of a weakening trend.

As indicated by A, if price should break below the L2 line, then the L1 line as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA would continue serving as the dynamic resistance, and a downtrend would form, with the bearish technical outlook, until price should break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA successfully.

In other words, price of Top Glove has to break above the L1 line in order to break away from the negative trend, and if it should resumes its uptrend, the upside break out of the L1 line has to be confirmed with a significant increased of volume.

4 Q Rolling PER	15.73 times	Dividend Yield	1.77%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/8/2009	22.00 sen	3.17%	11.04%
31/8/2008	11.00 sen	2.71%	8.01%
31/8/2007	9.22 sen	1.31%	8.83%
31/8/2006	9.00 sen	1.04%	7.90%
31/8/2005	8.00 sen	1.60%	9.06%

Table 2: Topglov -7113, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Latexx-7064: Strong earnings, but failed to lift share price.

Chart 3: Latexx-7064 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

Despite announcing a strong earnings, 125% increased on earning per share, on the 3rd of May, price of Latexx react negatively, and started falling. This kind of reaction implies that investors are not confident with the market or this individual stock any more, thus a sign of caution. That is why, technical analysis is a study of price with investors' memory as well as psychology.

Nevertheless, currently, price of Latexx is moving sideways thus a best time to monitor the sideways consolidation by using the Bollinger Bands. As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands contracted for about two weeks, suggest that price was consolidating while preparing for a new movement, and finally the Bollinger Bands re-expanded, but unfortunately, with price of Latexx staying below the Bollinger Middle Band, thus giving a weakening signal.

If price should break below RM3.60, it would be a signal to cut loss, for Latexx would be making a 4 months new low, and then, the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall serve as a dynamic resistance, with technical outlook being weak.

Technically, when price should break below RM3.60~RM3.70, it is a signal to cut loss. It is because when price should break below RM3.60~RM3.70, it means that for this months, all investors who had bought their share above RM3.60~RM3.70 and are still holding, would be turning their profit into losses, and when this happens, there will be more fear in the market as these investors no long want to make a profit, but breaking even becomes their priority, thus selling pressure is expected to be higher.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.48 times	Dividend Yield	0.53%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	2 sen	0.53%	15.86%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	6.97%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	3.40%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	2.79%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	3.35%

Chart 3: Latexx-7064, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
When the broad market is turning weaker, the strongest market leaders would also be affected. Therefore, it is very important for a smart investors to trade with the overall market direction.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Time, Faber, MRCB.

Even though the KLCI is still consolidating, the total market volume is actually falling, while staying below the 40-day VMA level. This suggests that the market continuity is weak, as investors are staying on the sidelines, implying that their confidence is still low. Therefore, trading for individual counters would be twice as hard, for chances of an uptrend forming is lower, or many would be breaking below their support level. Let's study a few case study.

Time-4456: Testing important support.

Chart 1: Time-4456 (22/10/2009～28/04/2010)

As shown on chart 1, price of Time tested the RM0.39 ~ RM0.40 support level many times, which lasted for about 5 months. Therefore, investors of Time has naturally built up a memory around this level.

Despite many rebound from the RM0.39~ RM0.40 level, price of Time failed to form an uptrend due to insufficient market participation, and instead, its upside volatility is gradually reducing. As indicated by A, now it is testing the RM0.39~RM0.40 support, and if price should break below this level, it would mark a 6 months new low, and then the RM0.39~RM0.40 level shall reverse its role as a resistance, for those who had hold their shares above RM0.39 would be losing money, thus their memory of the RM0.39 will become a break-even level.

Nevertheless, it is still too early to say that for price of Time has not broken below this level. But it is never too early to be mentally prepared for the worst. If price should remain supported by the RM0.39~RM0.40, it would prolong its consolidation, but without strong volume, it is less likely that price of Time would form an uptrend. Next support for Time, if price should break below RM0.39, is seen at RM0.335 level, study Chart 1A.

Chart 1A: Time-4456 (17/02/2009～28/04/2010)

4 Q Rolling PER	21.47 times	Dividend Yield	0.00%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	11.96%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	-24.48%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	6.40%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	-8.21%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	-152.95%

Table 1: Time-4456 yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Faber-1368: Breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, a weakening sign.

Chart 2: Faber-1368 (31/12/2009～28/04/2010)

As indicated by A, price of Faber breaks below 14, 21, 31 EMA, this is the first time the price closed below the 14, 21, 31 EMA since the 2nd time uptrend, suggesting that the current uptrend is taking a pause. Unless price could resume to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA with strong volume, the immediate technical outlook shall stay bearish biased.

Since price of Faber is now below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is now serving as the dynamic resistance and the next support is at RM2.00 psychological level. Technically, when price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA after riding in an uptrend for some time, it is a signal to take profit. If one should find it hard to decide, a partial profit taking (selling 1/3 of a position) is usually a good choice to reduce trading risk.

4 Q Rolling PER	10.14 times	Dividend Yield	2.60%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	6 sen	3.61%	10.27%
31/12/2009	4 sen	5.97%	23.29%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	7.76%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	5.96%
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	5.98%

Table 2: Faber-1368, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

MRCB-1651]: Breaking below dynamic support.

Chart 3:MRCB-1651 (31/12/2009～28/04/2010)

As indicated by A, price of MRCB fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA for the first time after moving in uptrend since March. Meanwhile, it has also form an T1 short term downtrend line, suggesting that the immediate technical outlook is on the negative side, with lower volume.

Despite having a sign of a technical rebound, price of MRCB remains below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the rebound is only a technical rebound, not a reversal. To break away from the short term bearish movement, price has to break above the T1 line and return to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with strong volume. Nonetheless, next support for MRCB is seen at RM1.45 level.

4 Q Rolling PER	40.58 times	Dividend Yield	0.56%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	1 sen	0.73%	3.76%
31/12/2008	0sen	0%	-7.18%
31/12/2007	0sen	0%	4.51%
31/12/2006	0sen	0%	6.20%
31/12/2005	0sen	0%	4.25%

Table 3: MRCB-1651, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
When the overall market volume is low, profit taking will push the price lower, thus the uptrend is generally harder to sustain. This is even truer for an individual counter which is moving in downtrend. Therefore, unless the overall market participation improves, picking stocks will not be an easy job for now.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies CIMB, Supermx, BJcorp.

As the European and US markets took a sharp quick correction, many local stocks were affected. Could this destroy the existing uptrend?

Case Study Review:CIMB-1023: Consolidating with weakness.

Chart 1: CIMB-1023 (31/12/2009～28/04/2010)

Let's review last week's Case Study of CIMB. As shown on chart 1, price of CIMB has broken below the L1 line of the Ascending Wedge, suggesting that the L1 uptrend line is no long valid. However, as indicated by A, price of CIMB remains supported by the 31-day EMA, thus prolonging its sideways consolidation.

As indicated by the dotted line, there is a risk of a lower-high formation, as this is an early sign of a weakening trend. Therefore, if price of CIMB should break below the 31-day EMA, it would form a downtrend, unless price of CIMB could break above the dotted line with strong volume. Nevertheless, next support for CIMB is at RM13.70 while the resistance is at RM 14.82 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

4 Q Rolling PER	17.93 times	Dividend Yield	1.30%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	18.50 sen	1.46%	26.31%
31/12/2008	25.00 sen	4.27%	25.22%
31/12/2007	25.00 sen	2.27%	31.00%
31/12/2006	15.00 sen	1.94%	23.53%
31/12/2005	15.00 sen	2.63%	17.51%

Table 1: CIMB-1023, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Supermx-7106: Weakening trend

Chart 2: Supermx-7106 (31/12/2009～28/04/2010)

Even since moving in its uptrend in March, 2009, price of Supermx has increased upto RM6.60 or 780%. As shown on the chart, the uptrend has been firmly supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with two exception, that price was temporary below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, but managed to return to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA in short term, (which was the end of September, 2009 and early February, 2010). Therefore, the 14, 21, 31 EMA, is still the long term uptrend dynamic support for Supermx.

As shown on chart 2, price of Supermx retreated as profit taking take place, forming an L1 short term downtrend line, as well as a Lower-high. Technically, this is an early sign of a weakening trend. However, as indicated by A, it has not broken below the 31-day EMA, thus the longer term outlook is still holding up, implying that it might only be consolidating for the moment.

Nevertheless, the current consolidation of Supermx is similar to the effect of a Descending Triangle with the L1 line together with the 31-day EMA. Therefore, if price should rebound and break above the L1 line with strong volume, the 14, 21, 31 EMA would resume its role as a dynamic support, thus the long term uptrend remains intact. On the contrary, if price should break below the 31-day EMA, the L1 downtrend line would remain intact, thus the immediate technical outlook would remain weak. Therefore, it would be a signal to take profit.

4 Q Rolling PER	11.47 times	Dividend Yield	1.59%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	11 sen	2.01%	15.92%
31/12/2008	3.25 sen	4.06%	5.58%
31/12/2007	1.90 sen	0.63%	13.85%
31/12/2006	6.50 sen	1.56%	10.49%
31/12/2005	6.50 sen	1.46%	12.74%

Table 2:Supermx-7106, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

BJCORP-3395: Sign of weakening trend.

Chart 3: BJCORP-3395 (31/12/2009～28/04/2010)

As shown on Chart 3, price of Bjcorp retreated after hitting the RM1.87 level, but it managed to rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus it has not formed a downtrend yet. However, after the rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price failed to break new high, and therefore, it forms a Lower-high, with an L1 short term downtrend line. This suggests that currently, price of Bjcorp is consolidating with bearish biased.

Technically, with price forming a Lower-high, it is an early sigh of a downtrend formation. But since price of Bjcorp is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it is now temporary consolidating. And the support is at RM 1.65, which is the similar level of the 31-day EMA, as indicated by A.

If price should remain supported by the 31-day EMA, there is a chance that the consolidation would prolong. However, if price should break below the 31-day EMA, then the L1 downtrend shall remain intact, thus the downtrend will form, with negative technical outlook. If price should break away from the negative biased movement, it has to break above the L1 line with strong volume.

Leading PER	-83.33 Times	Dividend Yield	1.97%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9.00 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0%	5.72%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0%	-24.33%
30/04/2005	0 sen	0%	-3.03%

Table 3: BJCORP-3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

When a stock is having its consolidation and testing its dynamic support, it is the critical moment between resuming its uptrend or a reversal. Therefore, a trader has to be absolutely clear with his trading plan and follow his plan with an undisturbed mind.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Maybank, Maxis, Affin.

As shown on chart 1, after the KLCI being resisted by the 1347.61 level, total market volume started to decrease gradually, suggesting that most investors are staying on the sidelines while the market direction is unclear, as indicated by A. However, it is quite normal to have lower volume during consolidation. However, there is another more important factor than the volume, which is the performance of the ACE market. As shown on chart 2, since January 2010, the ACE market has been trending lower, and currently testing the 4130 support. If the FBMACE should break below the 4130 level, more downside movement is expected.

Based on record, during a healthy bull run, most major indices must be rising in tandem, as it shows that not only bluechips are leading, but majority of listed counters are also moving higher. However, the current situation is some what different, as the KLCI is moving higher, but the FBMACE is actually falling. This suggests that the overall market is selectively bullish, and not the most ideal bullish condition. Therefore, investors should take extra caution and only select counters that are moving in uptrend, and avoid cheap stocks.

Chart 1: FBM KLCI (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

Chart 2: FBMACE (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

Maybank-1155 ：Testing Resistance.

Chart 3: Maybank-1155 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on chart 3, price of Maybank is being resisted by the RM7.55 level for about 1 and a half month, and until now, it has not broken above this level. Although price of Maybank had fallen sharply one day, on the 19/04/2010, but it managed to rebound at the 31-day EMA, which suggested that the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support, and Maybank has not formed a downtrend yet.

As indicated by A, price of Maybank is testing the RM7.55 again, and if price should break above this resistance with strong volume, it would break away from this consolidation and resume its uptrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall continue serving as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference.

Meanwhile, investors or traders could apply the Bollinger Bands to monitor the end of the consolidation. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, it would be a signal suggesting that the consolidation has ended, and the new movement has begun. Then, if price should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish biased movement. Otherwise, with price below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish biased movement. Next support for Maybank is seen at RM7.25 while the next resistance is at RM7.85～RM8.00.

4 Q Rolling PER	38.98 times	Dividend Yield	1.07%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/06/2009	8 sen	1.36%	3.93%
30/06/2008	52.50 sen	7.45%	18.13%
30/06/2007	80 sen	6.67%	20.95%
30/06/2006	85 sen	7.94%	22.07%
30/06/2005	102.5 sen	9.40%	22.31%

Table 1: Maybank-1155, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and Net profit ratio.

Maxis-6012: Trending Weak

Chart 4: Maxis-6012 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on chart 4, price of Maxis is gradually trending lower, while still being supported by the RM 5.20~RM5.24 level. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic resistance, and technically, with price below the dynamic resistance, the immediate technical outlook is weak. In other words, the falling 14, 21, 31 EMA together with the RM5.24 support line, is actually outlining the similar situation of a Descending Triangle.

If price should remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and breaking below the RM5.20 level, it would be making a new low, thus the downtrend is expected to carry on. Then, it would be a good idea to cut loss.

In contrary, if price should rebound and break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with strong volume, there is a chance that Maxis to break away from the bearish biased movement. But to form an uptrend, price must break above RM5.40 level.

4 Q Rolling PER	19.41 times	Dividend Yield	2.83%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	15 sen	2.72%	20.73%

Table 2: Maxis-6012, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Affin-5185: Likely to form an uptrend.

Chart 5:Affin-5185 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on chart 5, price of Affin retreated after hitting RM3.29 resistance. However, it managed to rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, precisely. This suggests that the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support for Affin uptrend.

As indicated by A, it seems like Affin is resuming its uptrend after being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, to break above the RM3.29 level is not going to be easy as much more volume is needed, because the selling pressure at the RM3.29 level is expected to be strong.

In other words, more volume is needed as it implies more inflow of fresh capital to offset the selling pressure, then only there is a chance for price to break above RM3.29 resistance. Nevertheless, with price still standing above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend remains intact and investors can continue to hold until price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then, it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss.

4 Q Rolling PER	12.38 times	Dividend Yield	2.76%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	8.5 sen	3.22%	18.51%
31/12/2008	5 sen	3.29%	13.84%
31/12/2007	5 sen	1.93%	11.52%
31/12/2006	5 sen	2.60%	30.41%
31/12/2005	4 sen	2.55%	28.82%

Table 3: Affin-5185, yearly dividend yield, dividend, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
While the KLCI is consolidating, the market direction is unclear, and the market sentiment affected. Therefore, a sound trading plan is still needed for smart investors.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies CIMB, KNM, OSK

Chart 1: FBM KLCI (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on Chart 1, the KLCI retreated after resisted by the 1347.61 level and started to consolidate, but it managed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, suggesting that the overall uptrend is still intact. However, as indicated by A, total market volume started to decline, suggesting that the market participation has reduced, as investors are staying on the sidelines while market direction is unclear. Technically, if volume should stay below the 40-day VMA level, it suggests that the market participation is insufficient, thus the market is less likely to pick up strength, or the consolidation is still intact.

Meanwhile, as shown on chart 2, the FBMACE is testing the 4130 support level, and if it should break below this level, more downside movement is expected. Generally, during a healthy bullish market, major indices should be rising together. But currently, the KLCI is moving in uptrend, but the FBMACE is moving in downtrend. Therefore, this suggests that the bullish market is very selective, thus not the most ideal condition. In other words, investors should pick stock with even more consideration.

Chart 2: FBMACE (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

CIMB-1023]: Breaking below Ascending Wedge.

Chart 3: CIMB-1023 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on chart 3, price of CIMB formed an Ascending Wedge pattern, with the L1 line being the dynamic support and the L2 line being the dynamic resistance. An Ascending Wedge itself is an uptrend pattern, but with the upside volatility gradually reducing, implying that the uptrend is getting old.

As indicated by A, price of CIMB broke below the L1 line, suggesting that the L1 trend is over, but still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. This shows that despite the L1 uptrend is no longer holding up, price of CIMB has not formed a downtrend yet.

Technically, if price should rebound as a pullback effect, and touch the L1 line, and later starts falling again, the L1 line would be the resistance line. And if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, there is a risk of a downtrend formation, thus a signal to cut loss.

4 Q Rolling PER	17.91 times	Dividend Yield	1.30%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	18.50 sen	1.46%	26.31%
31/12/2009	25.00 sen	4.27%	25.22%
31/12/2009	25.00 sen	2.27%	31.00%
31/12/2009	15.00 sen	1.94%	23.53%
31/12/2009	15.00 sen	2.63%	17.51%

Table 1: CIMB-1023 yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

KNM-714: Breaking new low.

Chart 4: KNM-714 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As indicated by A, price of KNM broke below the RM0.70 support with a break-away gap. Technically, this is an important signal, because for those who had bought above the RM0.70 level, and all of them are now losing money. Therefore, the RM0.70 level will be a strong resistance level, for it would be a level for these losers to break even.

After breaking below RM0.70, price of KNM stopped falling when touching RM0.60 level, thus the RM0.60 level is the temporary support for KNM. Meanwhile, the RM0.60 is also the 61.8% of the Fibonacci Retracement line, calculated based on the lowest RM 0.32 to the highest RM1.09 level.

Based on the theory of Fibonacci, 61.8% retracement line is likely to be a reliable support level. However, as for breaking away from the downtrend, price would still need to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, and if price should remain below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is still bearish biased. If price should break below RM0.60 level, it would be another signal to cut loss for the next support is seen at RM 0.50.

4 Q Rolling PER	14.32 times	Dividend Yield	0%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	0 sen	0%	9.37%
31/12/2008	1.5 sen	3.7%	13.30%
31/12/2007	4.0 sen	0%	9.37%
31/12/2006	5.0 sen	0.57%	14.56%
31/12/2005	5.0 sen	1.40%	11.97%

Table 2: KNM-7164, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision of previous Case Studies:OSK-5053: Uptrend is still intact.

Chart 5: OSK-5053 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)

As shown on chart 5, price of OSK tested the RM1.47 resistance, and the immediate resistance is at RM1.47 level. Despite the resistance at RM1.47, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still the dynamic support for OSK, suggesting that OSK is still trending up.

Technically, if price should break above the RM1.47, more upside room is expected, thus the uptrend shall continue. Other wise, if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would mark an end to the uptrend.

As for those who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold as long as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the uptrend, it would be a much better signal if price could break above RM1.47. If price should break below 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be a signal to take profit.

As for investors who are looking for buying signal, they have to wait until the bullish break out with strong volume, and then apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop.

4 Q Rolling PER	8.31 times	Dividend Yield	5.21%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	7.5 sen	6.1%	13.73%
31/12/2008	7.5 sen	7.58%	16.59%
31/12/2007	20 sen	8.62%	21.38%
31/12/2006	12.5 sen	6.38%	23.84%
31/12/2005	7.5 sen	7.85%	13.52%

Table 3: OSK-5053, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

As the market is consolidating, many counters are having similar corrections. Therefore, selecting counters during a consolidation stage has to be very careful, and must select counters consolidating in an existing uptrend, and avoid downtrend stocks.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。