Based on record, during a healthy bull run, most major indices must be rising in tandem, as it shows that not only bluechips are leading, but majority of listed counters are also moving higher. However, the current situation is some what different, as the KLCI is moving higher, but the FBMACE is actually falling. This suggests that the overall market is selectively bullish, and not the most ideal bullish condition. Therefore, investors should take extra caution and only select counters that are moving in uptrend, and avoid cheap stocks.
Chart 1: FBM KLCI (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)
Chart 2: FBMACE (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)
Maybank-1155 ：Testing Resistance.
Chart 3: Maybank-1155 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)
As shown on chart 3, price of Maybank is being resisted by the RM7.55 level for about 1 and a half month, and until now, it has not broken above this level. Although price of Maybank had fallen sharply one day, on the 19/04/2010, but it managed to rebound at the 31-day EMA, which suggested that the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support, and Maybank has not formed a downtrend yet.
As indicated by A, price of Maybank is testing the RM7.55 again, and if price should break above this resistance with strong volume, it would break away from this consolidation and resume its uptrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall continue serving as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference.
Meanwhile, investors or traders could apply the Bollinger Bands to monitor the end of the consolidation. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, it would be a signal suggesting that the consolidation has ended, and the new movement has begun. Then, if price should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish biased movement. Otherwise, with price below the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bearish biased movement. Next support for Maybank is seen at RM7.25 while the next resistance is at RM7.85～RM8.00.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 38.98 times | Dividend Yield | 1.07% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 30/06/2009 | 8 sen | 1.36% | 3.93% |
| 30/06/2008 | 52.50 sen | 7.45% | 18.13% |
| 30/06/2007 | 80 sen | 6.67% | 20.95% |
| 30/06/2006 | 85 sen | 7.94% | 22.07% |
| 30/06/2005 | 102.5 sen | 9.40% | 22.31% |
Table 1: Maybank-1155, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and Net profit ratio.
Maxis-6012: Trending Weak
Chart 4: Maxis-6012 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)
As shown on chart 4, price of Maxis is gradually trending lower, while still being supported by the RM 5.20~RM5.24 level. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic resistance, and technically, with price below the dynamic resistance, the immediate technical outlook is weak. In other words, the falling 14, 21, 31 EMA together with the RM5.24 support line, is actually outlining the similar situation of a Descending Triangle.
If price should remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and breaking below the RM5.20 level, it would be making a new low, thus the downtrend is expected to carry on. Then, it would be a good idea to cut loss.
In contrary, if price should rebound and break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with strong volume, there is a chance that Maxis to break away from the bearish biased movement. But to form an uptrend, price must break above RM5.40 level.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 19.41 times | Dividend Yield | 2.83% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 15 sen | 2.72% | 20.73% |
Table 2: Maxis-6012, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Affin-5185: Likely to form an uptrend.
Chart 5:Affin-5185 (23/12/2009～21/04/2010)
As shown on chart 5, price of Affin retreated after hitting RM3.29 resistance. However, it managed to rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, precisely. This suggests that the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support for Affin uptrend.
As indicated by A, it seems like Affin is resuming its uptrend after being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, to break above the RM3.29 level is not going to be easy as much more volume is needed, because the selling pressure at the RM3.29 level is expected to be strong.
In other words, more volume is needed as it implies more inflow of fresh capital to offset the selling pressure, then only there is a chance for price to break above RM3.29 resistance. Nevertheless, with price still standing above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend remains intact and investors can continue to hold until price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then, it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 12.38 times | Dividend Yield | 2.76% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 8.5 sen | 3.22% | 18.51% |
| 31/12/2008 | 5 sen | 3.29% | 13.84% |
| 31/12/2007 | 5 sen | 1.93% | 11.52% |
| 31/12/2006 | 5 sen | 2.60% | 30.41% |
| 31/12/2005 | 4 sen | 2.55% | 28.82% |
Table 3: Affin-5185, yearly dividend yield, dividend, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
While the KLCI is consolidating, the market direction is unclear, and the market sentiment affected. Therefore, a sound trading plan is still needed for smart investors.
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