OSK, DRBHCOM, BJCORP

The KLCI had tested the 1576 resistant many times, and failed, and therefore, chances of a technical correction is high. What are the signs that investors should be watching out during the market correction? When is the time to take profit?

SPSETIA – 8664: High volume associated with correction, suggesting strong selling pressure.

Chart 1: SPSETIA – 8664 as at 19/01/2011.

As shown on chart 1, price of Spsetia had its peak of RM6.93 on the 13th of January, and since then, price started to decline as a technical correction, and it is rather normal. However, as indicated by A, when price started to retreat, volume increased significantly, and this implies that despite new inflow of capital, sellers were initiating the trade by selling lower to new buyers. This implies that the selling pressure is higher. And the same time happened on the 18th of January, as indicated by B.

Fortunately, despite the increased of selling pressure, price of Spsetia remains above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and this suggests that the uptrend is still intact. Therefore, for trend trading investors, it is a good idea to hold as long as price is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support. But it is important that these investors to adjust the profit taking level buy lifting it according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

As for those whom are interested in taking up new position, please consider the effect of the higher selling pressure, as it implies that it would be harder for price to return to its peak of RM6.93.

In short, due to the higher selling pressure, investors are advised to take extra caution and honor the original trading and cut loss plan. Even if price could rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, we should also watch out if price would form a lower-high, and if so, it would be a first signal suggesting a possible reversal.

4 Q Rolling PER	25.88 times	Dividend Yield	3.12%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/10/2010	20 sen	3.58%	14.42%
31/10/2009	14 sen	3.62%	12.16%
31/10/2008	17 sen	6.12%	16.07%
31/10/2007	18.4 sen	2.36%	22.54%
31/10/2006·	22.5 sen	5.74%	20.81%

Table 1: SPSETIA – 8664, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

DRBHCOM – 1619: Technical correction, testing uptrend dynamic support.

Chart 2: DRBHCOM – 1619 as at 19/01/2011

As shown on chart 2, price of DRBHCOM has recently went up to RM2.27, and retreated as a form of a technical correction. Price fell RM0.25 or 11%. However, as indicated by A, price of DRBHCOM is temporary supported by the 14, 21 ,31 EMA, and this suggests that the uptrend is still intact.

If price should continue to rebound, it would be forming a higher-low, and for those whom are already in position, it is a good idea to hold, as long as lifting the profit taking level higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA level. This way, it will gradually reduce the trading risk while maximizing the potential of the uptrend.

Although it is said that the uptrend is still intact, the outlook of individual counters are highly affected by the effect of the broader market correction. In other words, we should be cautious, and watch out for any lower-high formation despite that price is still staying above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, for when price should form a lower-high, it would be a first signal suggesting a possible reversal. Please refer to Chart 2A for a downtrend characteristic of DRBHCOM.

Chart 2A: DRBHCOM – 1619 : from 29/10/2007 to 13/3/2008, downtrend characteristic.

4 Q Rolling PER	6.22 times	Dividend Yield	1.90%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/03/2010	4 sen	4.12%	7.48%
31/03/2009	15.83 sen	22.94%	10.83%
31/03/2008	5 sen	3.94%	7.27%
31/03/2007	3.5 sen	1.79%	3.27%
31/03/2006	2 sen	1.39%	-5.79%

Table 2: DRBHCOM – 1619, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

BJCORP – 3395: Failing to form an uptrend.

Chart 3: BJCORP – 3395 as at 19/01/2011.

On the 4th of January, price of Bjcorp broke above the RM1.15 resistance, breaking away from the trading range which lasted for almost 4 months. However, price of Bjcorp did not form any higher-Low, and therefore, it has not shown any sign of an uptrend formation.

As indicated by A, price of Bjcorp went up to RM1.29 after breaking above the RM1.15 resistance, but has profit taking activities started to take place, it started falling. Usually, during this time, it is the crucial timing for investors to watch out for any higher-Low formation. Unfortunately, price of Bjcorp failed to form a higher-low, but instead, breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Therefore, there is no buy signal, even after breaking away from the trading range.

With the price of Bjcorp currently staying below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for Bjcorp is on the lower side, until price could successfully breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Support for Bjcorp is seen at RM1.00~Rm1.05 while the resistance is at RM1.25~RM1.29.

4 Q Rolling PER	24.89 times	Dividend Yield	0.88%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2010	1 sen	0.79%	1.23%
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0.00%	5.75%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0.00%	-24.33%

Table 3: BJCORP – 3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

Since the broader market is having a technical correction, the market sentiment is some what affected as investors are being cautious. Therefore, many individual counters are expected to have a similar technical correction effect. At this time, investors are advised to honor their own trading plan, and when price has turned against you, or the uptrend is violated, the right thing to do is to execute the cut loss plan or take profit.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

DIALOG, BJCORP, OSK

After breaking above the Triangle consolidation, the KLCI resumed its rally, making historical new highs. At the same time, total market volume also increased with volume above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests that the market is actively participated as new money inflow into the market also increases. As a result, many counters had resumed their rallies, and many making new highs as well.

DIALOG – 7277: Continues In uptrend.

Chart 1: DIALOG – 7277 as at 5/01/2011.

As the KLCI is breaking new high and the crude oil price is still on the rise, many oil and gas related counters are still trending up. As shown on chart 1, price of Dialog had a technical correction couple weeks ago, but after its correction, price rebounded above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is still serving as the dynamic support to the uptrend, and as a result, price of Dialog breaks above its latest resistance of RM1.89, making yet another multi-years new high.

Technically, as long as price of Dialog could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, the uptrend is still intact. Therefore, it is a good idea to hold, provided that one should gradually lift the cut-loss or profit taking level higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA. This way, the risk of trading will eventually be lower, while extending the gains on the uptrend.

As for those who are interested in taking up new position, the ideal entry level would be when price forms a higher-low. However, if price should stay rather far away from the dynamic support level, the risk of a pull back is still high. More importantly, once entered, one have to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop reference, and if price should break below the dynamic support, it is take to cut loss.

4 Q Rolling PER	28.93 times	Dividend Yield	1.57%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/06/2010	3.1 sen	2.82%	10.19%
30/06/2009	3.6 sen	3.30%	8.35%
30/06/2008	3.1 sen	2.31%	9.49%
30/06/2007	2.2 sen	1.17%	10.26%
30/06/2006	3.6 sen	6.67%	12.83%

Table 1: DIALOG – 7277, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision of last week's Case Study: BJCORP – 3395: Breaking away from consolidation, might form an uptrend.

Chart 2: BJCORP – 3395 as at 05/01/2011.

As indicated by A, price of Bjcop breaks above the RM 1.13~RM1.15 resistance, breaking away from its consolidation which lasted about 3 months. Meanwhile, as price breaks above the resistance, volume also increased significantly, and this suggests some inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure.

Although price has broken away from its consolidation, it has not formed an uptrend yet. Technically, price has to form a Higher-low, preferably above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then only it is a sign of an uptrend.

In other words, it is highly expected that price will have a pullback after breaking above the RM1.13 ~ RM 1.15 resistance. However, when price should retreat, it is important that it should not fall back below RM1.15, or the uptrend would not form. If price should retreat but rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA after the pullback, then there is a good chance that it would form a Higher-low, then it would be an ideal entry signal. Generally, it is a good idea to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop after taking up a position to minimize trading risk.

4 Q Rolling PER	27.31 times	Dividend Yield	0.81%
Dividend ）		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2010	1 sen	0.79%	1.23%
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9.00 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0.00%	5.75%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0.00%	-24.33%

Table 2: BJCORP – 3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

OSK- 5053: Likely to form a higher-low, uptrend continues.

Chart 3: OSK- 5053 as at 05/01/2011.

As shown on chart 3, after hitting its resistance of RM2.23, and entering into a consolidation since October, 2010, price of OSK has been supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and despite a consolidation, the uptrend remains intact. As indicated by A, now that price is showing some sign of a higher-low formation, the uptrend is likely to resume.

If price should rebound from the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would form a higher-low. As for those who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold as long as price is still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. As for new buyers, an ideal entry would be a new formation of higher-low, and once entered, a good practice is to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop to reduce unnecessary risk. Immediate resistance for OSK is seen at RM2.20 ~ RM 2.23.

4 Q Rolling PER	14.24 times	Dividend Yield	3.66%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	7.5 sen	6.10%	13.73%
31/12/2008	7.5 sen	7.58%	16.59%
31/12/2007	20 sen	8.62%	21.38%
31/12/2006	12.5 sen	6.38%	23.84%
31/12/2005	7.5 sen	7.85%	13.52%

Table 3: OSK- 5053, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

Not only that the KLCI breaks above is resistance, it also makes new high. Therefore, many counters are resuming their uptrend. One should simply following the direction of the broad market, with a sound trading plan, and the trading risk shall be manageable.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

KNM, TGOFFS, BJCORP

Despite testing the 1479.59 resistance several times, the KLCI failed to break out from this resistance. However, the uptrend of the KLCI is unaffected . Meanwhile, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands is suggesting a consolation signal for the KLCI. Below are some case studies for this week.

KNM – 7164: Resisted at RM0.50

Chart 1: KNM – 7164 as at 29/09/2010。

As indicated by A, price of KNM has been consolidating above the RM0.48 ~RM0.50 support level for about 4 months, and as investors trying to accumulate stocks at this level around this time, thinking that this could be the bottom, they had unconsciously created a memory about this level.

However, as indicated by B, price of KNM fell sharply on the 1st of September, breaking below the RM0.48 support level. This means that all the investors who had bought above the RM0.48 level are now losing money, and the RM0.48~RM0.50 level is now their psychological level for breaking even, thus technically becoming the resistance.

As indicated by C, despite a strong rebound from RM0.39 level, price of KNM was precisely resisted at RM0.48, and this has proven the theory of the role change between a support and a resistance level, as it represent the memory of traders, who turned from a profit investor to a loser. In short, the RM0.48 resistance is expected to be strong, and the support is now at RM0.39.

4 Q Rolling PER	32.50 times	Dividend Yield	0.00%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	0sen	0 %	9.37 %
31/12/2008	1.5 sen	3.7 %	13.30 %
31/12/2007	4 sen	0.52 %	16.29 %
31/12/2006	5 sen	0.57 %	14.56 %
31/12/2005	5 sen	1.4 %	11.97 %

Table 1: KNM – 7164 yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

TGoffs – 7228: Forming a Symmetrical Triangle.

Chart 2: TGoffs – 7228 as at 29/09/2010。

As shown on chart 2, price of TGOFFS has been rising in an uptrend, while firmly supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Since 27th of May, price of TGOFFS has gained RM1.00 in value or 100%, with its recent peak reaching RM2.02.

Although the uptrend is still intact, price of TGOFFS has formed a lower-high on the 15th of September, but it has not broken below a recent support, thus no new low. As a result, it has formed a Symmetrical Triangle, with L1 being the dynamic resistance, and L2 being the dynamic support. Notice that when forming a Symmetrical Triangle, price does not break new high nor new low, and the fluctuation of price is gradually lower.

Technically, this is a consolation stage, and the direction shall remain unclear until a valid break out away from the Symmetrical Triangle. If price should break above the L1 line, it would be a signal suggesting that the uptrend would resume, however, a strong volume is needed at the break out to confirm such signal. The bullish break out can be viewed as a new buy signal.

On the other hand, if price should break below the L2 line, it would be a bearish biased signal, suggesting that there is a risk of an end to the uptrend. Thus no buy signal.

Leading PER	35.46 times	Dividend Yield	0%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	0 sen	0 %	0.75 %
31/12/2008	6 sen	6.52 %	5.57 %
31/12/2007	0 sen	0 %	5.47 %
31/12/2006	3 sen	1.01 %	6.23 %
31/12/2005	3 sen	1.52 %	7.83 %

Table 2: TGoffs – 7228, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision of last week's Case Study: Bjcorp – 3395: Might form an uptrend.

Chart 3: Bjcorp – 3395 as at 29/09/2010。

After breaking above the downtrend line, BJCORP continue to show positive biased signal. As indicated by A, although price of BJCORP retreated after resisted by RM1.15 resistance, it managed to rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, forming a higher low, which is a sign of a possible uptrend formation. However, more volume is needed to confirm the signal.

Meanwhile, after forming a higher-low, price of Bjcorp should break the RM1.15 resistance, (new high) in order to fulfill the criteria of an uptrend. Or else, with the RM1.15 being intact, the chance of forming a trading range is still high.

Nevertheless, if traders would like to follow the higher-low signal as a buy signal, they should apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop, to protect their position with limited losses. Because, technically, an ideal uptrend is firmly supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it means that the uptrend has failed, thus a signal to cash out.

4 Q Rolling PER	27.62 times	Dividend Yield	0.93%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2010	1 sen	0.79 %	1.23 %
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99 %	-0.83 %
30/04/2008	9 sen	8.11 %	17.20 %
30/04/2007	0 sen	0 %	5.75 %
30/04/2006	0 sen	0 %	-24.33 %

Table 3: Bjcorp – 3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
It is usually not a good idea to buy during a consolidation or during a formation of a triangle, especially for conservative type of investors. An ideal signal would be a valid bullish break out.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

OSK, LBS, BJcorp

The 2010 FIFA World Cup has started, and traditionally, the market volume is lower during this period (below the 40-day VMA level). This shows that investors are still on the sidelines while waiting for some clearer signals. When the market volume is low, it is believed that the buying interest is also low, and therefore, the KLCI or the market is less likely to pick up strength, and more likely to stay range bound or sideways. Meanwhile, the external factors are still the affecting the lower market sentiment. If the US markets continue to fall, the KLCI is expected to be weak. Let's take a look at some case studies.

OSK – 5053: Remains in downtrend.

Chart 1: OSK – 5053 (12/02/2010 ~ 09/06/2010 )

As shown on chart 1, price of OSK remains in the T1 downtrend, which lasted for 2 months. During the downtrend, price technically rebounded a few times, but remained resisted by the T1 downtrend line. Whenever price tested the T1 line, it formed another lower-high, re-affirming the downtrend formation.

Meanwhile, other than the T1 downtrend line, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic resistance for OSK, and technically, provided that price is still resisted by the dynamic resistance, the technical outlook shall remains weak.

In short, price of OSK has to break above the T1 line as well as the 14, 21, 13 EMA in order to break free from the downtrend. This is because whenever price is still moving below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it means all investors who bought during this downtrend are mostly making losses, thus their will to break even is stronger than to make money. In other words, a downtrend is a fear dominant market, in which selling pressures are high. Nevertheless, OSK immediate support is at RM1.25 level while the next support is at RM1.14 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

4 Q Rolling PER	6.05	Dividend Yield	6%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	7.5 sen	6.1%	13.73%
31/12/2008	7.5 sen	7.58%	16.59%
31/12/2007	20 sen	8.62%	21.38%
31/12/2006	12.5 sen	6.38%	23.84%
31/12/2005	7.5 sen	7.85%	13.52%

Table 1: OSK – 5053, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

LBS – 5789: Breaking away from downtrend.

Chart 2: LBS – 5789 (20/01/2010~09/06/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of LBS formed a T1 downtrend which lasted for 5 months, and during the downtrend, many technical rebounded took place, and tested the T1 line, but failed. Therefore, it formed several lower-highs repeatedly, re-affirming the downtrend.

As indicated by A, price breaks above the T1 line for the first time in 5 months, as well as breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance. This is a positive signal, but it is yet to be confirmed of a reversal, as price retreated at RM0.57 level due to profit taking activities.

If price could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and formed a higher low, it would have the reversal condition, and the next condition would be a strong volume when price starts rally. If price could then break above the RM0.57 resistance, it would be a reversal signal, then the 14, 21, 31 EMA would be serving as trailing stop reference for this possible uptrend.

However, if price should remains sideways while volume is still low, it would extend its consolidation. Immediate support for LBS is at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, while the next support is at RM0.45 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

4 Q Rolling PER	0 times	Dividend Yield	0%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	0sen	0%	-8.28%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	5.79%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	2.14%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	1.41%
31/12/2005	3.3sen	8.05%	8.11%

Table 2: LBS – 5789, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision of last week's Case Study: BJCorp – 3395: Downtrend, breaking new low.

Chart 3: BJCorp – 3395 (11/02/2010~09/06/2010)

As indicated by A, price of Bjcorp was supported by the RM1.45 level, and consolidated there for about two weeks, but finally, price broke below the RM1.45 support level, making a 3 months low. Technically, when price should be this support level, it means that the T1 downtrend remains, and the technical outlook remains weak. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA continued serving as a dynamic resistance for Bjcorp.

Since price breaks below the RM1.45, it means that all investors who had bought their share above the RM1.45, and are still holding, are all making losses. Therefore, it is assume that the will to break even is stronger than the will to make money as these investors are having losses instead on profit which they had anticipated when they bought their shares. Therefore, there will be ready sellers near the RM1.45 level, and the selling pressure is likely to be strong. Nonetheless, immediate support is at RM1.32 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the next support is at RM1.15 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

4 Q Rolling PER	0 times	Dividend Yield	2.45%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0%	5.75%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0%	-24.33%
30/04/2005	0 sen	0%	-3.03%

Table 3: BJCorp – 3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Generally, it takes time for a stock to reverse its trend. First, a technical rebound, with strong volume, breaking above the downtrend line of the dynamic resistance, then a formation of a higher-low. Then only the required conditions are met. Therefore, if market should rebound with strong volume, there is a better chance for many stocks to reverse.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Maxis, Ranhill, BJcorp

As the US market broadly rebounded, regional markets including the KLCI, also rebounded. Therefore, many individual counters were having a technical rebound too. However, it is unlikely that a technical rebound would bring the bearish market to an end, or at least it is too early to tell right now. This is because the dynamic resistance is still pointing downwards. Nevertheless, the current technical rebound is likely to do some good as it temporary ease the decline.

Revision of Last week's Case Study: Maxis – 6012: Weak consolidation.

Chart 1: Maxis – 6012 (11/19/2009 ~ 02/06/2010 )

As indicated by A, price of Maxis rebounded from RM5.10 last week and re-tested the RM5.20 level. Despite the rebound, it failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 Exponential Moving Average, thus suggesting that the overall trend is still downtrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic resistance.

If price of Maxis should consolidate above RM5.20 level, it could extend its consolidation and might have a chance to break away from this downtrend. However, it is not a reversal yet, for a reversal would need strong volume as price rises.

On the other hand, if price should remain resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later breaking below the RM5.20 again, it means that the next target will be RM5.10 level, thus a risk of resuming its downtrend.

Leading PER	17.57 times	Dividend Yield	2.88%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	15 sen	2.72%	20.73%

Table 1: Maxis – 6012], yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Ranhill – 5030: Downtrend Channel, technical rebound.

Chart 2: Ranhill – 5030 (03/08/2009~02/06/2010)

As indicated by A, price of Ranhill remains in its downtrend channel, with the T1 line being the dynamic resistance while the T2 line is the dynamic support. On the 2nd of June, price of Ranhill rebounded strongly, and tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA, but the selling pressure was still strong, thus price of Ranhill failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

Despite the strong technical rebound, the downtrend remains intact. This means, whomever trying to catch this rebound, is actually buying into a downtrend, whether its a short term trading or else, this strategy is high risk.

Nevertheless, one should never over look the risk of a downtrend, as when price falls, in the downside, no matter how high or how low one bought their shares, as long as he or she hold his or her shares, he or she is now losing money, thus increasing the will to break even, and inevitably increasing the selling pressure in the downtrend. Unless there are strong volume, which implies more inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure, it is not easy to reverse the downtrend.

4 Q Rolling PER	1.57 times	Dividend Yield	1.47%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/06/2009	1.0sen	1.1%	10.29%
31/06/2008	0 sen	0%	-36.75%
31/06/2007	0 sen	0%	7.92%
31/06/2006	1.5 sen	1.16%	-0.89%
31/06/2005	1.5 sen	1.19%	2.22%

Table 2: Ranhill – 5030, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

BJCorp – 3395：Weak Consolidation.

Chart 3: BJCorp – 3395 (04/02/2010~02/06/2010)

As shown on chart 3, price of BJCorp formed a T1 downtrend since May, and until now, price remained resisted by the T1 downtrend line. Fortunately, price of BJCorp managed to find a temporary support at RM 1.45, and therefore, the downside volatility is temporary reduced, thus entering a consolidation stage. But still, with the T1 downtrend line remains intact, the consolidation is likely to be a weak one.

If price should break below RM1.45 level, it would mark an end to the consolidation, and resume its downtrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall continues serving as the dynamic resistance for Bjcorp, with bearish biased technical outlook. Unless, price could rebound from the RM1.45 and break above the T1 line with strong volume, then only there is a chance of a reversal. Or else, a rebound with weak volume suggests that the buying interest is still low, thus not having sufficient inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure. Nevertheless, next support for Bjcorp is at RM1.32 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the resistance is seen at RM1.60 followed by RM1.70 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement.

4 Q Rolling PER	0	Dividend Yield	2.25%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0%	5.75%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0%	-24.33%
30/04/2005	0 sen	0%	-3.03%

Table 3: BJCorp – 3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, after a sharp fall in May, it is normal to have a strong technical rebound as well. However, can one technical rebound breaks the downtrend? Not yet, because the market volume is still very low, thus suggesting that the investors' confidence is still low, and therefore, we don't have the technical conditions for a reversal market. Of course, experienced traders could take advantages of the technical rebound and do some short term trade, but the risk of short term trading is relatively higher.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

Case Studies Haio, BJcorp, MRCB

When the broad market is falling, there will be more counters falling than counters rising, and therefore, the probability of losing money is higher. However, it does not necessary means that whenever a broad market is having its correction, it would be a signal to take profit. Nevertheless, investors should stay cautious, and watch if the correction of the broad market would damage the existing uptrend on your portfolio. If the uptrend of your stocks remains intact, it is a good idea to hold on to it, but if price should break below an uptrend, it is a good idea to reduce position. This week, we would like to take a look at some counters which is turning weaker from their previous uptrend, and study the process of turning weaker from a stronger trend.

Haio-7668: Forming downtrend.

Chart 1:Haio-7668 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As indicated by A and A', price of Haio formed a Lower-high, and later consolidated above the RM4.38 level. Despite being supported by the RM4.38 level, the consolidation was bearish biased, for the lower-high implies a weakening movement.

As indicated by B, price of Haio broke below RM4.38 level, suggesting that those who had bought and hold their position above RM4.38 are now making losses, thus the idea of breaking even is getting stronger. Therefore, there will be memory of breaking even at RM4.38, A' and A1 level.

Nevertheless, when price broke below the RM4.38 level, the 14, 21, 31 EMA was also falling while serving as a dynamic resistance. In other words, the technical outlook for Haio shall remain bearish biased until price should successful break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA with strong volume.

4 Q Rolling PER	15.7 times	Dividend Yield	10.29%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	42 sen	11.11%	11.96%
30/04/2008	40 sen	11.17%	12.97%
30/04/2007	18 sen	8.11%	11.29%
30/04/2006	8 sen	6.35%	7.06%
30/04/2005	6 sen	6.00%	3.95%

Table 1:Haio-7668, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

BJCORP-3395]：Forming Downtrend.

Chart 2: BJCORP-3395 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of JBCorp retreated after reaching its height of RM1.87 level, but managed to be supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA and rebounded from there. However, when price rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it has failed to return to its previous height, and formed a Lower-high, which forms the L1 line.

As indicated by A, after forming the L1 line, price of BJCorp also break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, confirming the formation of a downtrend while the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the L1 line are both serving as dynamic resistance. In short, the technical outlook for BJCorp is now bearish biased.

If price were to return to its uptrend, it has to break above these dynamic resistance with strong volume, or else, any rebound below the dynamic resistance would only be counted as technical rebound, not a reversal.

Leading PER	-75.49 times	Dividend Yield	2.18%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
30/04/2009	3.35 sen	3.99%	-0.83%
30/04/2008	9.00 sen	8.11%	17.20%
30/04/2007	0 sen	0%	5.72%
30/04/2006	0 sen	0%	-24.33%
30/04/2005	0 sen	0%	-3.03%

Table 2: BJCORP-3395, yearly dividend, dividend yield, net profit ratio.

Review of last week's Case Study:MRCB-1651 :T1 downtrend line remains intact.

Chart 3: MRCB-1651 (08/01/2010～05/05/2010)

As shown on chart 3, the T1 downtrend line is still intact, suggesting that price of MRCB is still trending down. As indicated by A, price of MRCB rebounded and tested the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the T1 line last week, but failed to break above these dynamic resistance. This has once again, proven that the technical outlook for MRCB is on the negative side.

Nevertheless, technically, provided price should remain resisted by these dynamic resistance, the bearish biased outlook is expected to carry on. If price should rebound but failed to break above these resistance line, the rebound would only be technical rebound, not a reversal. A valid break out above the T1 line has to be accompanied by strong volume, or else, the downtrend remains intact.

4 Q Rolling PER	39.79 times	Dividend Yield	0.66%
Dividend		Dividend Yield	Net Profit Ratio
31/12/2009	1 sen	0.73%	3.76%
31/12/2008	0 sen	0%	-7.18%
31/12/2007	0 sen	0%	4.51%
31/12/2006	0 sen	0%	6.20%
31/12/2005	0 sen	0%	4.25%

Table 3: MRCB-1651, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Many investors had complaint that when the market turns downside, they don't have enough time to get out quickly. In fact, with the exception of Limit down, all downtrend needs time to form, and during the process of changing between the end of an uptrend to the beginning of a downtrend, there are specific characteristics, which is a very important aspect for investors to find out. With the skill in spotting these characteristics, there should be enough time for one to react. However, to pick up such skills, it takes years, and therefore, there are no short cut in this learning curve.

Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。