Thursday, March 31, 2011

CIMB, Gamuda, Haio

Lead by some selected KLCI index components, the KLCI breaks a 30-months new high. However, there are still many counters trading in a downtrend, some are even making new low. Therefore, when it comes to picking the right counter, it is crucial to pick the one trending up with the broad market, and avoid cheap stocks.

CIMB – 1023: Uptrend remains intact.


Chart 1: CIMB – 1023 (12/201001/09/2010)

After rebounding from the 14, 21, 31 EMA on the 17th of August, price of CIMB resumes its uptrend, and touched its height of RM8.00, but profit taking activities pulled the price slightly lower into a consolidation phase.

As shown in chart 1, even though price is consolidating, it is still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, thus the uptrend is still intact. Therefore, for those investors who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold on the the positions until price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss. Nevertheless, immediate resistance for CIMB is at RM8.00 and the support is at the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

4 Q Rolling PER

9.8 times

Dividend Yield

2.37%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

18.50 sen

1.46 %

26.31 %

31/12/2008

25.00 sen

4.27 %

25.22 %

31/12/2007

25.00 sen

2.27 %

31.00 %

31/12/2006

15.00 sen

1.94 %

23.53 %

31/12/2005

15.00 sen

2.63 %

17.51 %

Table 1: CIMB – 1023, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Gamuda – 5398: Breaking 30-month new high.


Chart 2: Gamuda – 5398 (12/05/2010 01/09/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of Gamuda hit its resistance at RM3.50 level, and price retreated as a technical correction. However, it managed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, thus the uptrend is still in place.

As the broad market picks up its strength, price of Gamuda followed the major trend, rebounding from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and resumed its uptrend and breaks above the RM3.50 resistance, marking a 30-months new high. Thus the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support.

Technically, as long as price is still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it is a good idea to hold on the the position as the uptrend is still intact. Until price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then it would be a signal to cut loss or to take profit. Resistance for Gamuda is at RM RM3.80~RM3.90, while the support is still at 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

4 Q Rolling PER

28.91 times

Dividend Yield

2.25%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/7/2009

8 sen

2.38 %

7.10 %

31/7/2008

25 sen

9.26 %

13.52 %

31/7/2007

46 sen

5.90 %

12.23 %

31/7/2006

16 sen

4.57 %

13.74 %

31/7/2005

16 sen

3.43 %

17.26 %

Table 2: Gamuda – 5398, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Haio – 7668: In downtrend.


Chart 3: Haio – 7668 (12/05/201001/09/2010)

As shown on the chart above, price of Haio returned to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA on the 9th of June, but it only managed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA for about 2 weeks, and later broke below the 14, 21, 31 EMA again, re-entering the downtrend. Until now, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic resistance while Haio is still in downtrend.

Technically, price of Haio is still in its downtrend channel (T1 and T2). Meanwhile, the downtrend characteristic is still very obvious (lower-highs), and therefore, any rebound below the T1 downtrend line is only considered as technical rebound, not a reversal.

As indicated by A, as price is testing the T2 line, there is a chance of a technical rebound, and for those short term investors, it is a chance to catch a rebound, but do keep in mind that this is a high risk trading strategy, only suitable for experienced traders. In short, the most ideal entry signal would be a higher-low formation.

4 Q Rolling PER

8.39 times

Dividend Yield

9.56%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

30/04/2010

28.50 sen

6.92 %

13.88 %

30/04/2009

42.00 sen

11.11 %

11.96 %

30/04/2008

40.00 sen

11.17 %

12.97 %

30/04/2007

18.00 sen

8.11 %

11.29 %

30/04/2006

8.00 sen

6.35 %

7.06 %

Table 3: Haio – 7668, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
“Trade with the trend, not against it.” It is easier to say than do. This is because it is against human nature to buy higher. It is almost impossible to do this without the determined mindset and proper practice.




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