AirAsia – 5099: Testing important dynamic support.
Chart 1: AirAsia – 5099 as at 10/11/2010.
As shown on chart 1, price of Airasia retreated after resisted by the RM2.62~RM2.65 level, and now testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA. As indicated by A, if price of Airasia should stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it means the uptrend is still intact, but the upside room is limited, unless it could take out the RM2.62~RM2.65 resistance.
To resume its uptrend, price must first rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and then break above the resistance, with strong volume. In the contrary, if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would mark an end to the uptrend, thus a signal to cut loss or the take profit. If price should stay below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the 14, 21, 31 EMA would reverse its role to become the dynamic resistance, and the next support for Airasia is at RM2.10.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 10 times | Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | ||
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0.00% | |
| 31/12/2007 | 0 sen | 0.00% | |
| 31/12/2006 | 0 sen | 0.00% | |
| 31/12/2005· | 0 sen | 0.00% | |
Table 1: AirAsia – 5099, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Kinstel – 5060: Failing to break above resistance.
Chart 2: Kinstel – 5060 as at 10/11/2010.
As shown on chart 2, after breaking above RM0.93 resistance on the 18th of October, price of Kinstel has been supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA and therefore, in an uptrend. However, as indicated by A, price of Kinstel tested RM1.05 resistance, and retreated from there due to profit taking activities. Despite the uptrend is still intact, the upside room is still limited until a valid break out above RM1.05.
As for those who had bought earlier, and provided that price could stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it is a good idea to hold. And If price should break above RM1.05, then investors should continue to hold their shares while using the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop reference to protect their paper profit.
On the other hand, if price should remain resisted by the RM1.05, there is a chance that price could break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, as long as price should stay above RM0.98~RM1.00, then price could be only consolidating. If price should break below RM0.98~RM1.00, it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 10.32 times | Dividend Yield | 0.99% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | ||
| 31/12/2009 | 1 sen | 1.01% | |
| 31/12/2008 | 1.7 sen | 4.00% | |
| 31/12/2007 | 1.7 sen | 1.27% | |
| 31/12/2006 | 7.5 sen | 4.60% | |
| 31/12/2005 | 5 sen | 5.49% | |
Table 2:Kencana – 5122, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
MEGB – 5166: Downtrend, technical rebound.
Chart 3: MEGB – 5166 as at 10/11/2010.
As shown on chart 3, price of MEGB remain below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the technical outlook is still bearish bias. Although price rebound from RM3.00 in September, it failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later, broke below RM3.00 again and marked a new low on the 28th of October.
After breaking below RM3.00, price of MEGB fell sharply until it touched RM2.25 and rebounded slightly. However, investors have to be careful that ever since price fall from RM4.30, it has been resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, thus the downtrend is still dominating, and at the same, price formed lower-highs and new lows, thus continue showing weakness in this counter.
Therefore, provided that the weakness of this trend is still persist, there are no ideal buy signal, no matter how low the price is. Technically, price has to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then form a higher-low with strong volume, then only it is an ideal buy signal.
Conclusion:
It is impossible to predict when the stock price would start falling, or when the stock will rise. However, provided that there are sufficient liquidity, and the stock price is not trading at a minimum-bids, it is likely that these stock would form patterns. As a technical analyst, and investors who utilize technical analysis, it is our job to identify these patterns.
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