Scomi – 7158: Testing downtrend line.
Chart 1: Scomi – 7158 (05/02/2010～02/06/2010)
As shown on chart 1, price of Scomi formed a downtrend for two months, while during this downtrend, a few technical rebounds took place, but failed to break above the T1 downtrend line.
As indicated by A, now that price of Scomi is testing the T1 line again, it is a crucial timing. If price should break above the T1 line and then breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would break away from this downtrend. But strong volume is needed to confirm such break out.
On the other hand, if volume should remain low, there is a risk of a false break out, as the buying interests is insufficient to off set the selling pressure. Nevertheless, support for Scomi at RM0.36~RM0.38 level.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 10.62 | Dividend Yield | 1.72% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 11 sen | 2.01% | 15.92% |
| 31/12/2008 | 3.25 sen | 4.06% | 5.58% |
| 31/12/2007 | 1.90sen | 0.63% | 13.85% |
| 31/12/2006 | 6.50sen | 1.56% | 10.49% |
| 31/12/2005 | 6.50sen | 1.46% | 12.74% |
Table 1: Scomi – 7158, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
MPHB – 3859: Downtrend, testing the downtrend line.
Chart 2: MPHB – 3859 (09/1/2009～02/06/2010)
As shown on chart 2, price of MPHB has formed a T1 downtrend for more than 2 months. During this downtrend, a few technical rebound took place, but failed to break above the T1 downtrend line, and formed lower-highs repeatedly, thus re-affirming the downtrend.
Now that price of MPHB is testing the T1 line and the 14, 21, 31 EMA again, it is a crucial point. If price should break above the T1 and the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with strong volume, it would break away from this downtrend, and stand a chance of a reversal. Then, the 14, 21, 31 EMA would be serving as dynamic support instead.
However, if price should break above the T1 and the 14, 21, 31 EMA with low volume, there is a bigger chance that price would prolong its sideways consolidation after breaking above the T1 line and the 14, 21, 31EMA, or a chance of a false breakout. If price should failed to break above the T1 line, and started falling again, it would form yet another lower-high, with weak technical outlook. Support for MPHB are at RM1.88~1.90 and the next support is at RM1.80.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 5.89 times | Dividend Yield | 4.52% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 9 sen | 4.66 % | 10.15 % |
| 31/12/2008 | 10 sen | 9.26 % | 4.31 % |
| 31/12/2007 | 11 sen | 4.74 % | 11.71 % |
| 31/12/2006 | 0 sen | 0% | 36.54% |
| 31/12/2005 | 0 sen | 0% | -69.12% |
Table 2: MPHB – 3859, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Revision of last week's Case Study: KNM – 7164: Consolidating with weak biased.
Chart 3: KNM – 7164 (05/02/2010～02/06/2010)
As shown on chart 3, price of KNM is moving sideways around the RM0.50 level, in narrow range. As a result, the Bollinger Bands contracts, suggesting not only a consolidation signal, but that KNM is also preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands re-expands.
Technically, when the Bollinger Bands has contracted for a period of time, its re-expansion signal is usually clearer. If price should stay above the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands re-expand, it would be a positive signal, then if investors choose to buy, they shall apply the Bollinger Middle Band as a trailing stop reference. On the other hand, if price should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band, as the Bollinger Bands expands, it would be a bearish signal. Immediate support for KNM is at RM0.47. If price should break below this support, it would be making a 15 months new low.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 17.31 times | Dividend Yield | 0% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0% | 9.37% |
| 31/12/2008 | 1.5 sen | 3.70% | 13.30% |
| 31/12/2007 | 4.0 sen | 1.27% | 9.37% |
| 31/12/2006 | 5.0 sen | 0.57% | 14.56% |
| 31/12/2005 | 5.0 sen | 1.40% | 11.97% |
Table 3: KNM – 7164, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
Generally, the most ideal reversal pattern consists of the following, a valid technical rebound which break above the downtrend line or the dynamic resistance, with strong volume, then a formation of a higher-low, with strong volume. Strong volume is needed for it represents more inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
