Chart 1: The KLCI chart from 13/7/2009 to 4/11/2009.
As shown on chart 1, after breaking below the 1248 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement as well as the Bollinger Middle Band the KLCI started to rebound, and testing the 1248 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement and the Bollinger Middle Band. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands is also contracting, suggesting that the KLCI is preparing for a new trend, and this is important signal to monitor.
Generally, when the KLCI is preparing for a new movement, it is time for investors to get ready, and plan for the possible outcome. We had prepared two scenario of possible outcome for the KLCI, (Study Chart 2 and Chart 3) for your study.
Chart 2: The ideal scenario for the KLCI.
As shown on chart 2, if the KLCI (or stock price) should rebound and break above the Bollinger Middle Band, and combine with the uptick of the MACD histogram, it would be a reversal signal, and the KLCI could break away from the negative movement and maybe a chance to regain its strength. Technically speaking, this is the most ideal scenario for the KLCI.
Chart 3: Typical down side signal for the KLCI.
If the KLCI should be resisted by the Bollinger Middle Band as shown on chart 3, together with the MACD histogram falling, the KLCI would form a downtrend.
The above chart 2 and 3 analysis can also apply to individual counters, and it is important to remember that when stock reverse up, the best confirmation would be a significant increased of volume. However, volume does not need to increased to confirm a bearish reversal.
Recent Bullish Reversal Example:
Chart 4: Time – 4456，recent movement.
| Indication | Remarks |
| A | When the Bollinger Bands contracts, price of TIME stayed below the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting the immediate outlook was bearish biased while still consolidating. |
| B | The MACD histogram started to form a Rounding Bottom. Suggesting that the stock price might be picking up some strength. |
| C | Bollinger Bands re-expanded, with price of TIME above the Bollinger Middle Band, signaling a bullish biased signal, with the Bollinger Middle Band serving as the dynamic support as well as the tra iling stop reference. |
| D | Volume also increases as the Bollinger Bands was showing a bullish movement signal. |
Recent Bearish reversal example:
Chart 5: Gamuda – 5398.
| Indication | Remarks |
| A | When the Bollinger Bands contracts, price o f Gamuda went into a consolidation stage wit price above the Bollinger Middle Band. The immediate outlook was positive biased, while awaiting for the Bollinger Bands expansion signal to confirm a bullish movement. |
| B | However, price of Gamuda fell below the Bollinger Middle Band, as the Bollinger Bands re-expanded, thus showing a bearish movement signal. |
| C | Meanwhile, the MACD histogram also falling, while confirming the negative Bollinger Bands signal. |
This week's Case Studies.
Below are the Case Studies for this week, and it is advisable that investors to follow the analysis method mentioned above, to further understand the application of the MACD histogram.
Chart 6: Msport – 5150, chart from 19/8/2009 to 4/11/2009.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands of Msport re-expanded after contracting for about two weeks with price above the Bollinger Middle Band. Therefore, expansion of the Bollinger Bands gives a bullish biased signal. As indicated by B, the MACD histogram also ticking higher, while forming a Rounding Bottom, and confirming thebullish Bollinger Bands signal. As mentioned earlier, the bullish Bollinger Bands signal has to be confirmed with the increased of volume, to strengthen the signal.
As indicated by C, volume of Msport increased significantly, suggesting more inflow of fresh capital. Provided that the Bollinger Bands is still expanding while the price is still above the Bollinger Middle Band, the increased of volume shall be a positive element to the bullish movement. Immediate resistance for Msport is at RM 0.63 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement while the support is at the Bollinger Middle Band.
Chart 7: AMMB – 1015, chart from 13/07/2009 to 4/11/2009.
As indicated by A, the Bollinger Bands is contracting, with price of AMMB below the Bollinger Middle Band, suggesting a mild bearish biased consolidation. The contraction of the Bollinger Bands also suggests that AMMB is preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall only be revealed once the Bollinger Bands re-expands. As indicated by B, the MACD histogram is forming a Rounding Bottom, suggesting that the price of AMMB is picking up some strength.
If the Bollinger Bands should re-expands with price breaking above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal, coupled with the rising of the MACD histogram. Technically speaking, the best confirmation to this bullish signal would be a substantial increased of volume. (As indicated by C). Immediate resistance for AMMB is seen at RM 4.83.
Conclusion:
When a stock price is about to reverse, investors can apply the above analysis method, by combining the Bollinger Bands (Primary Indicator) with MACD histogram and volume (Secondary Indicators); and with a proper trading plan according to the technical signal.
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