Wednesday, May 8, 2013
Thursday, May 19, 2011
KLCI, Rhbcap, Tenaga
Chart 1: KLCI as at 11/5/2011.
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI breaks above the L1 line, breaking away from its bearish biased technical outlook. However, this does not mean an immediate reversal for the KLCI, it only means that the KLCI is not forming a downtrend yet. Nevertheless, breaking above the L1 line is a positive signal for the KLCI for now.
Despite the improving technical outlook of the KLCI, total market volume remains low, as circled at B. Total market volume stays below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that the market participation is still low, and the inflow of fresh capital is still 'insufficient'. This suggests that the investors are still not feeling confident about the local market.
Rhbcap – 1066: Breaking new high.
Chart 2: Rhbcap – 1066 as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 1, after breaking above the RM 8.70 resistance, price of Rbhcap pullback, but fortunately, it managed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as well as the RM8.70 level.
As indicated by A, after finding its supported at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of Rhbcap rebounded and formed a higher-low, which means that the uptrend is likely to continue. Therefore, for those whom are already in position, it is a good idea to continue to hold as long as lifting the profit taking or cut loss level higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 13.44 times | Dividend Yield | 2.97% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 26.38 sen | 3.23% | 23.10% |
| 31/12/2009 | 22.45 sen | 4.25% | 22.14% |
| 31/12/2008 | 19.60 sen | 5.03% | 17.48% |
| 31/12/2007 | 13.60 sen | 3.66% | 21.44% |
| 31/12/2006 | 8 sen | 2.34% | 7.96% |
Table 1: Rhbcap – 1066, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Tenaga – 5347: Testing important support.
Chart 3: Tenaga – 5347 as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 3, price of Tenaga has been supported by the RM 6.00 level for more than 3 months, and until now, despite being supported, it has not been able to regain its strength, but instead, forming lower-highs.
The formation of lower-high outlined the weakness of this stock, but fortunately, Tenaga has not broken below RM6.00 support, thus not yet extending its downtrend. However, investors should not view the RM6.00 support as the “lowest” point. In fact, since started falling in September, 2010, price of Tenaga has been staying in a downtrend, but only recently, finding its support at RM6.00, and temporary putting a pause on the downtrend.
Have you ever wonder, what these investors were thinking when they buy at around RM 6.00. We can safely guess that they must believe that it is the lowest price for now, and hoping that price would start to rebound from here, furthermore this is a heavy weighted KLCI component stock, and the risk of losing the entire line is almost impossible.
It is understandable if one would buy this stock with the above mindset. However, we have to think deeper than that. Are this people who are trying to buy at the bottom making money now? Answer is no. Most of them would say “Never mind, I will hold longer and wait for it to reverse.” But we can not ignore a natural psychology, which is when price is moving sideways, while these investors are already in position, waiting anxiously, the confident as well as the hope will gradually reduce, and some even started to feel regret. “If I knew that it was not going to rebound, I would have waited.” Especially when they see that other stocks are moving, but not this one.
What about those who had bought earlier? Don't you think that they were also believing that it was the “bottom” of the stock at the time they bought it? They were also hoping that they were right, but now, I am guessing that these early buyers are mostly feeling sorry for themselves, together with guilt and regret.
If later, price of Tenaga should break below RM 6.00, how would all these “bottom fishers” feel? By then, there will be more selling pressure, as the RM6.00 level becomes their negative memory, the memory of “betrayal” instead of the original “promise”.
Therefore, I cannot emphasis stronger, that regardless of the price position, buying should be based on the direction of price trend, not the price.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 9.30 times | Dividend Yield | 4.30% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/08/2010 | 26 sen | 2.94% | 10.56% |
| 31/08/2009 | 17.77 sen | 2.22% | 3.19% |
| 31/08/2008 | 20 sen | 2.53% | 10.07% |
| 31/08/2007 | 36.30 sen | 3.65% | 17.41% |
| 31/08/2006 | 12 sen | 1.31% | 10.43% |
Table 2: Tenaga – 5347, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
Discussion of stock and identifying the characteristic is usually easier than in practice. But the hardest part is the psychological factors of investors. Because, we were born to be afraid of stock at higher price, and therefore, making it harder for us to buy a stock existing in an uptrend.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
KLCI, Dialog, IOIcorp, Pchem
Chart 1: KLCI as at 11/5/2011.
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI breaks above the L1 line, breaking away from its bearish biased technical outlook. However, this does not mean an immediate reversal for the KLCI, it only means that the KLCI is not forming a downtrend yet. Nevertheless, breaking above the L1 line is a positive signal for the KLCI for now.
Despite the improving technical outlook of the KLCI, total market volume remains low, as circled at B. Total market volume stays below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that the market participation is still low, and the inflow of fresh capital is still 'insufficient'. This suggests that the investors are still not feeling confident about the local market.
Revision of previous Case Study: Dialog – 7277: Breaking New High.
Chart 2: Dialog – 7277 as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 2, price of Dialog has tested the RM 2.65 on the 5th and 28th of April, but failed to break above the RM 2.56 resistance. Fortunately, it only retreated mildly after being resisted by the RM 2.56, and was supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, this means that the uptrend was still intact.
As indicated by A, after being supported by the 14, 21 ,31 EMA, price of Dialog formed another higher-low, and later on the 11th of May, breaking above the RM2.56 resistance, making a multi-year new high, and at the same time, extending its uptrend. Therefore, for those whom are already in position, it is a good idea to continue to hold, as long as one should follow his trailing stop strategy by gradually lifting the profit taking or cut loss level higher, according to the 14, 21, 31. This way, it will not only reduce trading risk, it will also maximize the potential of this uptrend.
As for those whom are interested in taking up new position, an ideal entry point would be at a higher-low formation. But new buyers should not use the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop immediately, instead, he or she should set a base line, using the recent rebound support (RM2.40). If price should continue its uptrend, then only it is practical to switch to the 14, 21, 31 EMA as trailing stop method.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 38.96 times | Dividend Yield | 1.15% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 30/06/2010 | 3.1 sen | 2.82% | 10.19% |
| 30/06/2009 | 3.6 sen | 3.30% | 8.35% |
| 30/06/2008 | 3.1 sen | 2.31% | 9.49% |
| 30/06/2007 | 2.2 sen | 1.17% | 10.26% |
| 30/06/2006 | 3.6 sen | 6.67% | 12.83% |
Table 1: Dialog – 7277, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
IOIcorp – 1961: Downtrend intact.
Chart 3: IOIcorp – 1961 as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 3, price of IOIcorp has formed a lower-high in April, as illustrated by the dotted line. Since this is a weekly chart that we are talking about, and this signal is usually more significant than a daily chart. In short, IOIcorp is trading in a downtrend.
As indicated by A, after falling for a few weeks, price of IOIcorp showed a little sign of a rebound, but still, a technical rebound from an existing downtrend is not the same as the higher-low rebound of an uptrend. Therefore, one should not be trying to catch a bottom of this rebound.
If price should rebound but still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, or the dotted line, it means that the downtrend is still intact. Meanwhile, please refer to Chart 3A for the CPO chart.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 16.03 times | Dividend Yield | 3.20% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 30/06/2010 | 17 sen | 3.28% | 16.23% |
| 30/06/2009 | 8 sen | 1.69% | 6.74% |
| 30/06/2008 | 17 sen | 2.28% | 15.22% |
| 30/06/2007 | 7 sen | 1.35% | 16.55% |
| 30/06/2006 | 43.5 sen | 3.04% | 13.81% |
Table 2: IOIcorp – 1961, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Chart 3A: CPO Benchmark Index as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 3A, price of CPO had once broken below RM 3235 but it managed to rebound the next day, and returned to above RM3235 level. But still, after the rebound, the CPO trend is still showing weakness as there are lower-highs formation. If price of CPO should remain resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, the technical outlook shall remains weak. If price should fall below RM3235 support, it would be breaking an important new low, thus bringing negative impact to plantation stocks.
Pchem – 5183: Showing weakness.
Chart 4: Pchem – 5183 as at 11/05/2011.
As shown on chart 4, after reaching for its peak at RM7.61 on the 7th of April, price of Pchem started retreat as profit taking took place, which lead to a consolidation at 14, 21, 31 EMA level. After moving sideways for about two weeks, price of Pchem fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the uptrend was violated, and those who follow their trading plan, should take profit.
After breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of Pchem also formed an L1 descending line, which illustrates the formation of lower-high, which is an early sign of weakness, or possibly a downtrend formation.
Technically, there is no ideal buy signal for Pchem for now, and on the contrary, traders should view the formation of lower-high as a signal to sell. Support for Pchem is at RM 6.80 followed by RM 6.40.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, other than following the broad market trend, one must know the conditions of picking stocks, which includes understanding the fundamental of the company, together with technical analysis to choose stocks that is in an uptrend, and avoid stock trending down, because the stock price will directly affect the performance of one's portfolio.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
KLCI, IOICorp, CIMB, Timecom
Chart 1: KLCI as at 44/5/2011.
As at the 4th of May, the KLCI has been consolidating in a sideways manner for the past week, and as a result, the 14, 21, 31 EMA are losing their gradient. In other words, when the moving average lines are staying flat, the significance of their signals is reduced. Meanwhile, as illustrated by the dotted line, the KLCI might be forming a lower-high, which is an early sign of weakness.
As indicated by A, total market volume remains below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that the market is indeed quiet, as inflow of fresh capital is also low. Also, it implies that the investors' confidence is also low. It is like boiling water, where you have to keep the heat intact, or else, once the heat is removed, the water cools down. Don't forget that this is a the entire market volume that we are talking about here, and if total market volume is low, the chances of individual counters to sustain their uptrend is also affected.
This week's Case Studies:
IOIcorp – 1961: Technical outlook remains weak.
Chart 2: IOIcorp – 1961 as at 04/05/2011 (Weekly Chart)
As indicated by A on weekly chart of IOIcorp, price of IOIcorp fell below the RM 5.50 support, and the breaking below this level, means that all investors who had bought IOIcorp and are still holding, are losing money now. Therefore, these losers are having negative memory of IOIcorp.
Meanwhile, the T1 line is illustrating the formation of Lower-high, which means that IOIcorp is now in downtrend.
Technically, provided that price of IOIcorp is staying below the T1 line or the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance, the technical outlook shall remains on the negative side, and it is generally not advisable to trade against the weakness of price movement. Of course, it is normal to have a rebound after falling for some time, but if price should rebound and form a lower-high again, it suggests that the downtrend is expected to continue. Meanwhile, readers can refer to Chart 2A, the CPO chart.
Chart 2A: CPO Benchmark Index as at 04/05/2011.
As indicated by A, price of CPO has been trending weak, but fortunately still supported by the RM3235 support. Although price of CPO has been supported by this level, the rebounds showed its weakness by forming lower-highs. Technically, if CPO should fall below RM3235 level, it would be making a 6 months new low, and most likely, plantation stocks will be affected.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 16.12 times | Dividend Yield | 3.18% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 30/06/2010 | 17 sen | 3.28% | 16.23% |
| 30/06/2009 | 8 sen | 1.69% | 6.74% |
| 30/06/2008 | 17 sen | 2.28% | 15.22% |
| 30/06/2007 | 7 sen | 1.35% | 16.55% |
| 30/06/2006 | 43.5 sen | 3.04·% | 13.81% |
Table 1: IOIcorp – 1961, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
CIMB – 1023: Trendless.
Chart 3: CIMB – 1023 as at 04/05/2011.
As indicated by A, price of CIMB has been trading in a narrow range, and for the last month, the fluctuation of price was less than 3.5%. As price is entering the narrow sideways movement, the 14, 21, 31 EMA has lost its gradient, which makes the EMA non-functioning, or the significance of the 14, 21, 31 EMA is greatly reduced. Although it might not be a good time to study the 14, 21, 31 EMA for CIMB now, it is a good time to apply the Bollinger Bands.
When price is staying in a narrow sideways manner, the Bollinger Bands will contract significantly, suggesting that price is consolidating, and trendless, until the obvious re-expansion of the band width. When the Bollinger Bands should re-expands, it means that price begins to fluctuate. If the Bollinger Bands expands with price above the Bollinger Middle Band, it means a positive biased volatility, and other wise, a negative biased volatility.
Generally, after the Bollinger Bands re-expanded, and when price should form a higher-Low or lower-high, then it is time to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA again for trailing stop, or other trend trading reference purpose.
Based on the current chart of CIMB, the RM7.80 is an important support level for the year 2011. If price of CIMB should break below this level, it means those investors whom had bought CIMB in 2011 and are still holding, will turn their profit into losses, thus creating more selling pressure.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 16.71 times | Dividend Yield | 3.18% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 26.07 sen | 3.23% | 29.81% |
| 31/12/2009 | 18.50 sen | 1.46% | 26.31% |
| 31/12/2008 | 25 sen | 4.27% | 25.22% |
| 31/12/2007 | 25 sen | 2.27% | 31.00% |
| 31/12/2006 | 15 sen | 1.94% | 23.53% |
Table 2: CIMB – 1023, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Revision of last week's Case Study: Timecom – 5031: Testing support level.
Chart 4:Timecom – 5031 as at 04/05/2011.
As shown on Chart 4, after breaking above the resistance on the 22nd of April, price of Timecom started to retreat as a pull-back effect, and price of Timecom retreated to RM0.89~RM0.90 support level. Technically, if price should failed to stay above this level, the breakout would be a faulty one.
As indicated by A, fortunately, price of Timecom managed to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and therefore, the technical outlook remains positive. If price could rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend is likely to remain intact.
On the contrary, if price should continue to pull back, and later break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend would be violated, then investors will have to honor their own trading plan, by cutting loss, or taking profit. For example, for those whom had previously set a base line, if price of Timecom should fall below this base line, they have to cut loss. As for those whom had bought much earlier, they would have a choice to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop reference.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 21.16 times | Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 33.35% |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 11.54% |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0.00% | -331.43% |
| 31/12/2007 | 0 sen | 0.00% | -53.37% |
| 31/12/2006 | 0 sen | 0.00% | -53.01% |
Table 3: Timecom – 5031, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
When the broad market direction is unclear, it is harder to follow, and stock pick will be more difficult. Therefore, if one should find it difficult to making any buying picks, the natural thing to do is to avoid buying at all.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
KLCI, UEMLand, Perisai, EO
Chart 1: KLCI as at 44/5/2011.
As at the 4th of May, the KLCI has been consolidating in a sideways manner for the past week, and as a result, the 14, 21, 31 EMA are losing their gradient. In other words, when the moving average lines are staying flat, the significance of their signals is reduced. Meanwhile, as illustrated by the dotted line, the KLCI might be forming a lower-high, which is an early sign of weakness.
As indicated by A, total market volume remains below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, and this suggests that the market is indeed quiet, as inflow of fresh capital is also low. Also, it implies that the investors' confidence is also low. It is like boiling water, where you have to keep the heat intact, or else, once the heat is removed, the water cools down. Don't forget that this is a the entire market volume that we are talking about here, and if total market volume is low, the chances of individual counters to sustain their uptrend is also affected.
This week's Case Studies:
Uemland – 5148: Remains in consolidation.
Chart 2: Uemland – 5148 as at 04/05/2011.
As shown on chart 2, price of UEMland has been consolidating in a Rectangular pattern, with RM3.00 being the resistance, and the RM2.65 being the support. Technically, when price is staying in a rectangular pattern or a trading range, the direction is usually unclear, thus not suitable for trading.
Although price of UEMland been supported by the RM2.65, the recent rebounds, has shown some weakness as price failed to touch RM3.00, but instead, forming lower-highs, as illustrated by the dotted line. The lower-high is showing an early weakening signal for UEMLand.
If price should later break below RM2.65, it would be making a 4 months new low. It means that all investors whom have been holding in this 4 months, will be turning their profit (if any) into losses, thus creating more negative memory, and eventually increasing the selling pressure. Therefore, at this time where the weakness is still in place, it is not a good time to buy.
If price should reverse, then it should first form a Higher-low, then breaking above RM3.00 with strong volume. If price should break below RM2.65, the next support are found at RM2.38 followed by the RM2.00 psychological level.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 44.83 times | Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 41.42% |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 28.44% |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 14.50% |
Table 1: Uemland – 5148, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Perisai – 0047: Uptrend was violated.
Chart 3: Perisai – 0047 as at 04/05/2011.
As indicated by A on Chart 3, price of Perisai formed a Lower-high, as illustrated by the dotted line, which suggests a weakness of price movement. Price of Perisai also broke below the 14, 21, 31 EMA as well as the RM0.79 support, thus the uptrend was violated.
Although no one knows where the weakening price movement shall continue, one must honor his or her own trading plan which was set before or at the time buying this stock. Since the uptrend is violated, it is logic to cut loss or to take profit.
Technically, provided that price of Perisai is still staying below the falling 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for Perisai is on the negative side, and there is no buying signal, until a valid break out above the 14, 21, 31 EMA with a formation of Higher-Low.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 50.32 times | Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 13.63% |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 32.60% |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 20.98% |
| 31/12/2007 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 7.55% |
| 31/12/2006 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 4.28% |
Table 2: Perisai – 0047, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
E&O – 3417: Pullback effect.
Chart 4: E&O – 3417 as at 04/05/2011.
As indicated by A, price of E&O has been staying in a short term uptrend since last month and even broke above the RM1.38 resistance on the 28th of April, breaking a 3 months new high. After the breakout, price of E&O has its high reaching RM 1.54 but profit taking started to kick in and price retreated as a pullback effect.
It is quite normal to have a pull-back after breaking above a resistance, and technically, price should stay above its recently broken resistance (RM 1.38) and the break out shall remains intact. Ideally, volume has to be reduced during the pull-back, this means that the selling pressure was not too strong. But as price rebound again, volume has to be significantly higher in order to resume its uptrend. On the other hand, if price should break below RM1.38, the break out would be a faulty one.
Nevertheless, for those whom are already in position, it is a good idea to use the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop reference, by lifting the cut-loss or profit taking level gradually higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA. This way, it will gradually reduce your trading risk.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 25.60 times | Dividend Yield | 2.53% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/03/2010 | 3.80 sen | 4.29% | 20.12% |
| 31/03/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | -12.45% |
| 31/03/2008 | 5 sen | 2.78% | 24.95% |
| 31/03/2007 | 4 sen | 1.84% | 5.76% |
| 31/03/2006 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 12.93% |
Table 3: E&O – 3417, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
As an investor or trader, one should realize that there are times where the market is bullish, bearish, and also in an unclear trendless situation. It is said that different strategies are being applied for different market situation, for example, some choose to short the market during a bearish trend. But the point is, it requires different skills for different strategies, and one does not have to imitate what others do. We have to first know what we are capable of, our trading style, capital allocation, and emotional control. We will have to always remind ourselves that we don't have to trade all the time. When situation is uncertain, or if one should feel uncomfortable, it is perfectly OK to stay out of the market.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
KLCI, Axiata, Benalec, Tenaga
Chart 1: KLCI as at 20/4/2011.
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded near the 1513 support on the 20th of April, and now testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA. If the KLCI could successfully break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would likely to form a higher-low, which is a first characteristic of an uptrend formation. Next resistance for the KLCI is at the recent high of 1566 and the historical high of 1577.
Meanwhile, as indicated by B, total market volume remains low despite increasing slightly. Generally, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it suggests that the market participation is low, and the inflow of fresh capital is also low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pickup its strength.
This week's case studies:
Axiata – 6888: Testing important support of the year 2011.
Chart 2: Axiata – 6888 as at 20/04/2011.
As shown on chart 2, price of Axiata has been testing the RM 4.68~RM 4.70 a few times in 2011, and fortunately, until now, it is still supported by RM 4.68~RM .470. Therefore, the RM 4.68~RM 4.70 has become the important support for 2011.
As indicated by A, for the past two months, price of Axiata has been trending weak, and now testing the RM 4.68~RM 4.70 again. If price should break below this support, it means that those whom had been holding since December 2010, will turn their profit into losses. Therefore, it would create a strong negative memory at this level, and it could trigger more selling.
In other words, when price is testing an important support, it may seen like it is forming a bottom, but we should not try to buy low. As for long term investors, a good idea is to refer to the weekly chart of Axiata for a bigger picture. Refer to Chart 2A.
Chart 2A : Axiata – 6888 as at 20/04/2011. Weekly.
As indicated by A, on Chart 2A, since entering its uptrend in the middle of 2009, price of Axiata has been staying above the rising 14, 21, 31 Weekly EMA, a long term dynamic support. If price should break below this long term dynamic support, it suggests that the long term uptrend is violated. Thus a signal to consider to take profit.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 22.38 times | Dividend Yield | 2.13% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 10 sen | 2.02% | 11.33% |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 12.61% |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 4.39% |
Table 1: Axiata – 6888, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Benalec – 5190: Forming higher-low.
Chart 3: Benalec – 5190 as at 20/04/2011.
As shown on chart 3, price of Benalec broke above the 14, 21, 31 EMA on the 23rd of March, and rose all the way to RM 1.61. Price retreated as profit taking took place, but as indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the price, forming a higher-low. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the dynamic support.
Based on the chart of Benalac, price is likely to remain its short term uptrend, and investors could choose to hold. However, it is not time to use the 14, 21, 31 EMA yet, until price should start rising. As for new investors whom are interested in taking up position, the same strategy is applied here.
Nevertheless, if price should start rising, it will have to test the RM 1.57 ~ RM 1.61, and technically, to form an uptrend, price has to first form a higher-low, then followed by breaking its recent high, (new high).
Tenaga–5347: Weakness remains in consolidation.
Chart 4: Tenaga–5347 as at 20/04/2011.
As shown on chart 4, price of Tenaga has been testing the RM 5.95~RM 6.00 support many times, since February, 2011. With the support remains intact, it has prevented the downtrend of Tenaga from worsen, and price is entering a consolidation. However, lower-highs formation is still visible, as every time price rebounded from the support, the upper turning points are getting lower, which shows the weakness of the consolidation.
Technically, formation of lower-highs suggests weakness of the trend, but the other important factor that determines the downtrend is the break out below the RM 5.95~RM 6.00 support. It is usually not a good time to buy right now. Unless, price should break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and later forms a higher-low.
Conclusion:
As illustrated by above examples, when stock price is testing the important support, it might seem like it is staying at a “lowest” point, but it is important for one to wait until it really starts forming an uptrend, then only buy. Buying too early while price is still testing the support is impulsive, and once stock price break below the support, selling pressure is expected to be strong.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
KLCI, MPHB, Genm, Pchem
Chart 1: KLCI as at 20/4/2011.
As indicated by A, the FBM KLCI rebounded near the 1513 support on the 20th of April, and now testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA. If the KLCI could successfully break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would likely to form a higher-low, which is a first characteristic of an uptrend formation. Next resistance for the KLCI is at the recent high of 1566 and the historical high of 1577.
Meanwhile, as indicated by B, total market volume remains low despite increasing slightly. Generally, with volume below the 40-day Volume Moving Average, it suggests that the market participation is low, and the inflow of fresh capital is also low. Therefore, the KLCI is less likely to pickup its strength.
This week's case studies:
MPHB – 3895: Breaking new high.
Chart 2: MPHB – 3895 as at 20/04/2011.
As indicated by A, price of MPHB successfully rebounded from the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA in April, and extended its uptrend, breaking new high. Therefore, for those already in position, it is a good idea to hold, provided that one should gradually lift the cut-loss level or profit taking level higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA, to reduce trading risk. This is the idea of trailing stop.
As for those whom are interested in taking up new position, one has to first set a base line, and consider the risk of the entry price with this base line, before buying. This is because price might not immediately continue its uptrend, and possibly enter a consolidation stage first. Therefore, new buyers may not be able to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA immediately, unless price of MPHB continues to rise.
If price should consolidate, then these investors would have to honor their base line, set prior their entry. If price should break below this base line, it either means that the uptrend is violated, or the risk is higher than you can handle, and the logical thing to do is to cut loss.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 10.78 times | Dividend Yield | 2.96% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 9 sen | 3.45% | 8.39% |
| 31/12/2009 | 9 sen | 4.66% | 10.15% |
| 31/12/2008 | 10 sen | 9.26% | 4.31% |
| 31/12/2007 | 11 sen | 4.74% | 11.71% |
| 31/12/2006 | 0 sen | 0.00% | 36.54% |
Table 1: MPHB – 3895, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Genm – 4715: Pull back after breaking new high.
Chart 3: Genm – 4715 as at 20/04/2011.
As shown on chart 3, price of Genm broke new high on the 31st of March, and later price pulled back, entering a consolidation. Fortunately, when pull back, price of Genm remained above RM 3.65. Meanwhile, as indicated by A, price of Genm also supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and this suggests that the technical outlook for Genm is still positive.
Technically, price of Genm has to stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA or else, the uptrend will be affected. Therefore, those whom are already in position can choose to hold, while new buyers will have to wait for a higher-low to buy. As for long term investors, it is a good idea to refer to the weekly char of Genm for a bigger picture view.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 16.49 times | Dividend Yield | 2.16% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2010 | 8.00 sen | 2.42% | 23.94% |
| 31/12/2009 | 7.30 sen | 2.68% | 26.52% |
| 31/12/2008 | 7.00 sen | 3.10% | 12.98% |
| 31/12/2007 | 6.48 sen | 1.67% | 35.74% |
| 31/12/2006 | 27 sen | 1.85% | 24.84% |
Table 2: Genm – 4715, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Pchem – 5183: Uptrend remains intact.
Chart 4: Pchem – 5183 as at 20/04/2011.
As shown on chart 4, despite retreated from its recent high of RM 7.60, price of Pchem remains supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and this suggests that the uptrend remains intact. Therefore, one could choose to hold, provided using a trailing stop method with the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a reference.
As indicated by A, after being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of Pchem started to tick up, and it could be forming a higher-low again. Therefore, it could be viewed as a buy signal. For new buyers, it is advisable to take RM 6.80 as a base line, which is the mental maximum loss level. If price should continue rising, then only one could use the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop.
Conclusion:
It is very important that one should honor his own base line. Once the stock price break below this level, it means that either the market has changed, or your analysis was wrong. Either way, it is hurting your equity. Those whom are not honest to themselves remove the base line, and continue to hold, would eventually pay a huge price.
Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。
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