Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Unisem, Axiata, IRCB

Total market volume continues to stay below the 40-day VMA level, suggesting that the market is indeed very quiet, as inflow of fresh capital is slow. With the KLCI now below the Bollinger Middle Band, the immediate technical outlook for the KLCI is on the negative side, and therefore, most counters are likely to trend down. Nevertheless, we shall continue staying some Case Studies

UNISEM – 5005: Forms a Symmetrical Triangle.

Chart 1: UNISEM – 5005 (18/01/2010 ~ 30/06/2010 )

As shown on chart 1, price of Unisem rebounded on the L1 line on the 26th of May, and later breaking above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and resumed its uptrend movement. However, price failed to test its recent high, and instead, forming a lower high at RM3.25 level, L2 line. Therefore, it has formed a Symmetrical Triangle. This suggests a consolidation for Unisem.

The characteristic of a Symmetrical Triangle is that the fluctuation of price is getting lower as the price moves towards the right side of the Triangle, and the direction shall remains unclear, until a valid break out, above or below the Symmetrical Triangle. If price should break above the L2 line, with strong volume, then the 14, 21, 31 EMA would resumes its role as a dynamic support for the rally of Unisem.

Other wise, if price should break below the L1 line, it would means an end of the uptrend, but this signal does not need a strong volume to confirm. Then, the 14, 21, 31 EMA would be serving as the dynamic resistance for the falling price.

4 Q Rolling PER

11.23 times

Dividend Yield

0.88%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

2.5 sen

1.14 %

5.97 %

31/12/2008

2.5 sen

3.57 %

1.61%

31/12/2007

10 sen

6.06 %

12.25 %

31/12/2006

10 sen

6.06 %

10.38 %

31/12/2005

8 sen

5.76 %

3.92 %

Table 1: UNISEM – 5005, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

AXIATA – 6888: Capped by RM3.95~RM 4.00 Resistance.

Chart 2: AXIATA – 6888 (10/02/2010 ~ 30/06/2010)

As shown on chart 2, price of Axiata tested the RM3.95~RM4.00 resistance many times, and until now, it is still being resisted by this level. Therefore, it is believed that many investors have formed a memory at this level, thus creating a selling pressure when price approach this level.

Technically, if price would break above this level, more volume is needed, as more volume suggests more inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure. If price should really break above the RM3.95~Rm4.00 resistance, then the 14, 21 ,31 EMA would continue serving as the dynamic support, as well as the trailing stop reference of the rally.

On the contrary, if price should remain resisted by the RM3.95~RM4.00 level again, and later break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be a signal suggesting that the price movement of Axiata could be turning negative, and support would be at RM3.60 level.

4 Q Rolling PER

13.07 times

Dividend Yield

0.00 %

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

0 sen

0 %

12.61 %

31/12/2008

0 sen

0 %

4.39 %

Table 2: AXIATA – 6888, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

IRCB – 2127: Still being supported.

Chart 3: IRCB – 2127 (10/03/2010 ~ 30/06/2010)

As shown on chart 3, price of IRCB is still supported by the T1 uptrend line, in spite of the profit taking activities. With the price o f IRCB still above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the immediate technical outlook is still on the positive side, and therefore, for those who are holding this stock, it is a good idea to hold on to it as long as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting the price. If price should break below the 14, 21 ,31 EMA, it would be a signal to cut loss, or to take profit.

As for those who are looking to but this stock, there is no buy signal for the moment. Technically, price have to rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and form and higher-low, then only it is a buy signal, which suggesting a chance of continuation of the existing uptrend. Immediately after buying, investors should set a trailing stop by using the 14, 21 ,31 EMA as a reference.

4 Q Rolling PER

98.73 times

Dividend Yield

0%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/01/2010

0 sen

0%

3.56%

31/01/2009

0 sen

0%

-3.83%

31/01/2008

0 sen

0%

-16.09%

31/01/2007

0 sen

0%

-5.36%

31/01/2006

0 sen

0%

0.15%

Table 3: IRCB – 2127, yearly dividend, dividend yield, net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Although the KLCI has not formed a downtrend, total market volume remains low, and this suggests that the investors' confidence is still low, thus the KLCI is likely to stay weak. If volume should remains low, there won't be sufficient inflow of fresh capital to off set the selling pressure. Therefore, it is generally harder for any stock to sustain its uptrend. It is important to honor your trading and cut loss plan.





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