Monday, January 25, 2010

January Rally and Steel Counters.

Traditionally, our local stock market generally performance well in the month of January, based on the statistic study of the past 15 years. In other words, chances for a positive performance in January is still high. With this tradition, coupled with the KLCI testing 1300 level, together with strong improvement of the market volume, market sentiment now is positive. This week, we shall look at the Steel industry and some case studies of this sectors.

Year

January Rally%

1995

-87.92 -9.1%

1996

+60.25 +6.1%

1997

-19.75 -1.6%

1998

-24.93 -4.2%

1999

+5.3 0.9%

2000

+109.77 +13.5%

2001

+48.09 +7.1%

2002

+22.73 +3.3%

2003

+18.45 +2.9%

2004

+25 +3.1%

2005

+8.84 +1%

2006

+14.22 +1.6%

2007

+93.11 +8.5%

2008

-51.78 -3.6%

2009

+7.7 +0.9%

Table, the KLCI January rally tradition.

Lionind:


Chart 1, Lionind, chart from 23/07/2009 to 13/01/2010.

As shown on the chart above, after price Lionind broke above the T1 downtrend line, it has risen 29 sen or 20%, with the 14, 21, 31 EMA serving as the dynamic support. This suggests that price of Lionind is still trending up.

As indicated by A, price of Lionind is about to test the RM 1.71 resistance level, and if price should break above the RM1.71 resistance, it would be making a 16 months new high. Nevertheless, technically, the ideal break out above the RM1.71 resistance would be a break out with strong volume. A strong volume suggests an inflow of fresh buying interests to off set the selling pressure.

Technically, 14, 21, 31 EMA is still supporting Lionind, and also serving as a trailing stop method. Provided that price of Lionind is still staying above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend shall remain intact, and if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss.

Leading PER

4.29 times

Dividend Y

ield

0.60%

股息 (Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

30/06/2009

1 sen

0.8%

-6.06%

30/06/2008

1 sen

0.38%

12.43%

30/06/2007

1 sen

0.57%

4.36

30/06/2006

0.5 sen

0.52%

-0.29%

30/06/2005

1 sen

0.81%

8.26%

Table 2: Lionind, yearly Dividend, Dividend Yield, and Net Profit Ratio.

Annjoo

Chart 2: Annjoo, chart from 16/09/2009 to 13/01/2010.

As indicated by A, price of Annjoo broke above the RM 2.92 resistance, marking a 16 months new high. Meanwhile, price of Annjoo is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support for Annjoo, and the uptrend is still intact.

As indicated by B, the liquidity of Annjoo is generally low, thus often gaps appear. Therefore, the price fluctuation behavior of Annjoo is difference than Lionind, Kinstel, or Huaan. Generally, stock with lower liquidity is not suitable for short term trading, and chart that has gaps is generally harder to analyse.

Nevertheless, the next resistance for Annjoo is seen at RM 3.43 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement. Technically, provided that price is still supported by the 14, 21, 31, EMA, it is a good idea to hold on to the positions, as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the trailing stop reference. If price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would be a signal to take profit or to cut loss.

Leading PER

129 times

Dividend Yiel

d

3.99%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2008

12 sen

10.17%

6.26%

31/12/2007

16 sen

5.99%

9.89%

31/12/2006

16 sen

10.81%

7.04%

31/12/2005

3.5 sen

3.65%

3.13%

31/12/2004

16 sen

7.58%

11.96%

Table 3: Annjoo, yearly Dividend, Dividend Yield, and Net Profit Ratio.

Other Steel Counters current conditions:

Kinstel


Huaan

Name [Code]

Current

Conditions:

Kinstel [5060]

Last week, price of Kinstel broke above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and formed a higher-low, which is an early sign of an uptrend formation. Price of Kinstel is set to test RM 1.06 resistance, while the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference. Price of Kinstel has failed to break above the RM 1.06 resistance many times thus RM 1.06 is going to be a strong resistance. Nevertheless, if price of Kinstel could break out above RM 1.06 successfully, more upside room is expected.

Huaan [2739]

Currently, price of Huaan is still trading in its trading range between the RM.475 support and RM0.575 resistance. Nonetheless, after rebounding from the RM0.475 support level on the 28thof December, 2009, price of Huaan also broke above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, forming a short term uptrend. However, price of Huaan has to break above the RM0.575 resistance in order to give more room for the uptrend to sustain.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, counters in the similar industry or sector are likely to performance similarly. With in-depth study and analysis, investors could select his favorable counter(s) in a particular sector, and at the same time, monitor other counters in the same sector to better understand the behavior of the sector as a whole.





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