Chart 1: KLCI as at 30/3/2011.
As indicated by A, after breaking above the 14, 21, 21 EMA, the KLCI also broke above 1525 WinChart Automatic Fibonacci Retracement, and the technical outlook for the KLCI is now positive. As for whether the KLCI could form an uptrend, it will have to first firm a higher-Low.
Meanwhile, as indicated by B, total market volume increased significantly, and breaking above the 40-day Volume Moving Average. This suggests some increased of capital inflow, and it will generally help lifting the market sentiment. Which, indirectly, a positive element for the performance of individual counters.
This week, we are looking at some Oil and Gas related counters:
DIALOG – 7277: Testing new high in an uptrend.
Chart 2: DIALOG – 7277 as at 30/03/2011.
As shown on chart 2, price of Dialog has been testing the RM2.36~RM2.42 resistance few times. Although price of Dialog retreated every time after being resisted by the resistance, it is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and this suggests that the uptrend is still intact.
As indicated by A, price of Dialog is now testing the RM2.36~RM2.42 again, and if price could break above this level, it would be making a historical new high, thus the uptrend could continue. Technically, as long as price is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it is a good idea to hold.
As for those whom are interested in taking up new position, an ideal buy signal would be a new formation of higher-low, or new high, and preferably with strong volume. As for those whom are already in position, as long as price is still rising, it is a good idea to practice the trailing stop method by using the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and gradually lifting the profit taking level or the cut loss level according by the 14, 21, 31 EMA.
Due to the flat movement of Dialog for the past two months, it is not advisable to use the 14, 21, 31 EMA for new investors whom are taking up new position. A more suitable base line should be at RM2.15. New investors should only be using the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop when price started rising.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 35.05 times | Dividend Yield | 1.34% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 30/06/2010 | 3.1 sen | 2.82% | 10.19% |
| 30/06/2009 | 3.6 sen | 3.30% | 8.35% |
| 30/06/2008 | 3.1 sen | 2.31% | 9.49% |
| 30/06/2007 | 2.2 sen | 1.17% | 10.26% |
| 30/06/2006 | 3.6 sen | 6.67% | 12.83% |
Table 1: DIALOG – 7277, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Sapcres – 8575: Testing resistance.
Chart 3: Sapcres – 8575 as at 30/03/2011.
As shown on chart 3, since November, 2010, price of Sapcres has been staying in a trading range within the resistance of RM 3.75~ RM 3.85 and the support of RM 3.39~RM 3.40.
As indicated by A, price of Sapcres is now testing the RM 3.75~RM 3.85 resistance, and if price should break above this resistance, it would be making a new high of many years, and price could resumes its uptrend. Based on the current trading range condition, investors could take the support of RM3.39～RM3.40 as the last frontier, or the bottom line, and if price could stay above this level, it is still a good idea to hold.
As soon as price break above the resistance, then for those whom are holding could switch to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop method. This way, the trading risk will be reduced, and yet taking advantage of the uptrend.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 20.35 times | Dividend Yield | 2.30% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/01/2010 | 8.50 sen | 2.39% | 7.25% |
| 31/01/2009 | 7.00 sen | 2.97% | 5.23% |
| 31/01/2008 | 5.00 sen | 6.71% | 3.32% |
| 31/01/2007 | 2.00 sen | 1.33% | 3.46% |
| 31/01/2006 | 2.00 sen | 2.78% | -1.00% |
Table 2: Sapcres – 8575, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
MHB – 5186: Testing resistance in an uptrend.
Chart 4: MHB – 5186 as at 30/03/2011.
As shown on chart 4, since the IPO, price of MHB has been trending up, and staying above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is serving as the dynamic support. Therefore, for those whom are already in position, it is a good ideal to continue to hold. As long as you lift your profit taking level higher according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA.
Right now, it is testing its new high of RM7.00 resistance. If price of MHB could break above this successfully, it would allow more upside room for the uptrend. For those whom are interested in taking up new position, an ideal buy signal would be a new formation of higher-low, preferably above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Support for MHB are found at RM 6.30 followed by RM 5.70.
Conclusion:
It is said that most of the time, the stock market performance is usually thematic. For example, a few months back, Properties stocks were among the favorite of investors, but not all nearly 90 properties counter were trending up. For now, the outlook for oil and gas related industry remains positive, but out of 20+ O&G related counters, those that are trending down, or moving is sideways still outnumbered those that are trending up. One may wonder, out of many brands of television set, a consumer would spend a considerable time and effort to pick the best one, but sadly the same person might not be spending enough time to pick his O&G stock.
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