TA: Still waiting for form a higher-low. No uptrend yet.
Chart 1:TA (2/12/2009～31/03/2010)
As shown on chart 1, price of TA rebounded from the RM0.66 support, but until now, it has not formed an uptrend. As indicated by A, it tested the RM0.705 resistance and retreated as investors took profit. Fortunately, it stopped at the 14, 21, 31 EMA, suggesting that it might be forming a higher-low at the 14, 21, 31 EMA. If price should rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, there is a good chance that it would form a higher-low, which is the first characteristic of an uptrend, and the most ideal formation would be one with strong volume.
Technical, if price should also break above the RM0.705 after forming a higher-low, it would be forming an uptrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA shall serve as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference. On the other, hand, if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later breaking below the RM0.66 support, it would be making a new low, thus there is a risk of resuming its previous downtrend; therefore, it is a signal to cut loss.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 12.62 times | Dividend Yield | 0% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/01/2010 | 0 sen | 0% | 20.89% |
| 31/01/2009 | 4.50 sen | 7.32% | 16.94% |
| 31/01/2008 | 10 sen | 7.94% | 41.33% |
| 31/01/2007 | 7 sen | 7.95% | 36.94% |
| 31/01/2006 | 3 sen | 6.34% | 25.54% |
Table 1: TA, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Muhibah: No Uptrend Yet:
Chart 2: Muhibah (1/12/2009～31/03/2010)
As indicated by A, price of Muhibah consolidated around the MR1.01 to RM1.03 level after rebounded strongly. As indicated by B, as price consolidated, volume declined, suggesting that currently, there are no panic selling, which generally means a healthy consolidation.
If price should remain above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and rebound again, it would be forming a higher-low, which is the first technical condition for an uptrend, and it would be the most ideal condition if it should be accompanied by strong volume
Technically, Muhibah has not formed an uptrend yet, and even though there are chances that the above mentioned conditions could happen, investors has to be disciplined, and only started buying when price starts moving, because, if price should start falling and breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA and the RM0.91 level, it would be a new low, thus a risk of forming a new downtrend.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 25.68 times | Dividend Yield | 2.66% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 2.5 sen | 2.72% | 0.64% |
| 31/12/2009 | 2.5 sen | 2.53% | 1.02% |
| 31/12/2009 | 4.5 sen | 1.20% | 4.94% |
| 31/12/2009 | 7.5 sen | 2.88% | 3.06% |
| 31/12/2009 | 4 sen | 5.76% | 2.68% |
Table 2: Muhibah, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Axiata: Conslidating.
Chart 3: Axiata (1/12/2009~31/03/2010)
As shown on the chart above, price of Axiata retreated after testing the RM0.405 level, and until now, it has been consolidating in a narrow range. When price should consolidate at a narrow range, it would be the most ideal condition to apply the Bollinger Bands, as the Bollinger Bands will contract, and show an obvious signal. When the Bollinger Bands contracts, other than showing a consolidation signal, it also implies that price is actually preparing for a new movement, and the direction of the new movement shall be revealed once the Bollinger Bands re-expands.
Based on the characteristic of the Bollinger Bands, the narrower the band width gets, the re-expansion signal will be more significant, and it is usually easier to spot for the signal. If the Bollinger Bands should re-expand with price of Axiata above the Bollinger Middle Band, it would be a bullish signal, and with the confirmation of strong volume, the bullish signal is expected to be valid; and then, the Bollinger Middle Band shall serve as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference.
On the other hand, if price should stay below the Bollinger Middle Band as the Bollinger Bands re-expand, it would be a bearish signal, and it would be a signal to take profit or the cut loss, and for bearish signal, you do not need any increase of volume to confirm the signal.
| 4 Q Rolling PER | 17.50 times | Dividend Yield | 0% |
| Dividend | Dividend Yield | Net Profit Ratio | |
| 31/12/2009 | 0 sen | 0% | 12.61% |
| 31/12/2008 | 0 sen | 0% | 4.39% |
Table 3: Axiata, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.
Conclusion:
All healthy uptrend started with a technical rebound, and gradually turning into an uptrend, and it requires time to form an uptrend, as well as volume in breaking resistance as well as the rebound from the dynamic support. Other wise, there is a chance of a 'false breakout'.
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