Thursday, March 31, 2011

IJMLAND, MALTON, SPSETIA

Although most of the time, stocks trend rises in theme or sector, it does not mean that all counters in within the theme or sector will be a good pick. Take the Properties sector for example. Therefore about 90 properties stocks, but which ones are the leaders?

IJMLAND – 5215: Uptrend, testing RM3.25 resistance.


Chart 1: IJMLAND – 5215 as at 22/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, after hitting RM3.25 on the 25th of November, price of IJMLand retreated as a technical correction. However, after the correction, price was supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and this suggests that the uptrend remains intact. Therefore, investors could still hold this counter.

As indicated by A, after being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of IJMland started rising again, and this time, re-testing the RM3.25 resistance. If price could break above RM3.25, it would make room for the uptrend to continue, and the next resistance would be at RM3.50.

On the other hand, if price should prolong its consolidation, it would eventually break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. But this does not mean that it would reverse and form a downtrend immediately, unless price should break below RM2.98 ~ RM3.00 support, then forms a lower-high, then it would be a signal suggesting a downtrend formation.

4 Q Rolling PER

27.46 times

Dividend Yield

0.63%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/03/2010

2 sen

0.97%

 9.87%

31/03/2009

0 sen

0.00%

 7.62%

31/03/2008

0 sen

0.00%

 14.13%

31/03/2007

0 sen

0.00%

 -2.76%

31/03/2006

0 sen

0.00%

 9.07%

Table 1: IJMLAND – 5215, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.


MALTON – 6181: In Symmetrical Triangle Consolidation.

Chart 2: MALTON – 6181 as at 22/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, price of Malton started falling on the 11th of November, and it fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, it was later supported by RM0.69~RM0.70 level, and price rebounded. Although price rebounded from RM0.70, it has failed to return to its recent high of RM0.83, and instead, forming a high at RM0.80. As a result, it formed the L1 descending line.

Technically, the L1 line outlines the formation of Lower-high, which suggests a weakening movement. However, after forming the L1 line and price of Malton started falling for a few days, it rebounded again, thus forming the L2 ascending line. The L2 ascending line outlines the formation of a higher-low, which suggests an improving price movement. Therefore, the L1 and L2 lines are giving conflicting signals, and eventually, this formed a Symmetrical Triangle Patterns, and this Symmetrical Triangle represent a consolidation with equal strength on both bullish and bearish movement.

Generally, it is not a good idea to trade within a Symmetrical Triangle, as the direction is unclear. It is usually safer to make trading decision until a valid break out, above or below the Symmetrical Triangle. If price could break above the L1 line with strong volume, then it means that price could have a chance to resume its uptrend, and if investors should buy with t his signal, a good idea is to apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing stop reference after buying. On the other hand, if price should break below the L2 line, it means that the consolidation is over, and price could reverse, and the weakening price movement would continue. It is a risky move to try to buy when price breaks below the L2 line.

4 Q Rolling PER

12.52 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

30/06/2010

0 sen

0.00%

 6.30%

30/06/2009

0 sen

0.00%

 1.54%

30/06/2008

0 sen

0.00%

 -1.18%

30/06/2007

0 sen

0.00%

 0.62%

30/06/2006

0 sen

0.00%

 1.59%

Table 2: MALTON – 6181, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

SPSETIA – 8664: Uptrend remains intact.


Chart 3: SPSETIA – 8664 as at 22/12/2010.

As shown on chart 3, price of Spsetia broke above the RM5.30 resistance level on the 8th of December, and ended its consolidation. The break out of Spsetia allowed its price to extend the uptrend. As indicated by A, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference.

Technically, whenever price forms higher-low during an uptrend, is an ideal buy signal. The only key factor to control trading risk is to apply a trailing stop after buying, and generally, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is rather suitable. The idea of a trailing stop is to lift profit taking or cut loss level slowly according to the rising 14, 21, 31 EMA. This way, as price is moving higher, the cut loss level is also rising, and eventually reducing risk and protect paper profit.

As for those who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold, as long as price is above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Immediate resistance for Spsetia is at RM5.75~RM 5.78 while the support is at RM5.30.

4 Q Rolling PER

23.54 times

Dividend Yield

3.50%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/10/2010

20 sen

3.58%

 14.42%

31/10/2009

14 sen

3.62%

 12.16%

31/10/2008

17 sen

6.12%

 16.07%

31/10/2007

18.4 sen

2.36%

 22.54%

31/10/2006

22.50 sen

5.74%

 20.81%

Table 3: SPSETIA – 8664, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

As a rule of thumb, when selecting stocks, go for the leader, and never buy cheap. When buying those stocks which are rising in an uptrend, the selling pressure is generally lower, whereas the selling pressure in the falling stocks are high.






Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

KENCANA, DIALOG, TGOFFS

Many times, market movers are usually moving in tandem in a sector. Other than properties and construction sector, oil and gas is another sector worth looking at. However, this does not mean that all oil and gas related counters are a good pick. In fact, some Oil and Gas counters are falling against the major trend. Therefore, when picking a counter from a sector, pick winner, don't pick loser.

KENCANA - 5122: Uptrend, testing RM2.25 resistance.


Chart 1: KENCANA - 5122 as at 15/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, since re-entering into an uptrend in the 30th of August, price of Kencana has gained RM0.70 or 45% until now. While trending up, price of Kencana was firmly supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which serves as the dynamic support.

Meanwhile, other than being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of Kencana also formed higher-lows continuously, and this is an important uptrend characteristic.

Currently, price of Kencana is testing RM 2.25 resistance, and price went into a sideways consolidation. However, this does not affect the overall uptrend movement. Therefore, for those who are in position, it is a good idea to hold as long as the 14, 21, 31 EMA is still serving as the dynamic support.

Generally, as long as price is still rising, one could gradually raise the profit taking level according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Please note that in order for the trailing stop method to work, it could only be lifted higher, and cannot be lower. This way, it will help traders reducing trading risk while riding the maximum potential of the uptrend.

4 Q Rolling PER

19.66 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/07/2010

0 sen

0.00%

 12.46%

31/07/2009

0.1 sen

0.00%

 10.36%

31/07/2008

0 sen

0.00%

 5.86%

31/07/2007

0 sen

0.00%

 6.93%

31/07/2006

0 sen

0.00%

 0.00%

Table 1: KENCANA - 5122, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

DIALOG – 7277: Uptrend still intact.


Chart 2: DIALOG – 7277 as at 15/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, the price movement of Dialog is similar to Kencana, and both are trading in an uptrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA is serving as the dynamic support as well as the trailing stop reference. Currently, Dialog is being resisted by RM1.66 level. Although price is resisted by RM1.66 resistance, it did not retreat sharply, and only consolidating in a sideways manner.

Technically, a sideways consolidation is the best consolidation for when price is moving in sideways those who had just entered are not yet losing money, and therefore, it will not create much negative memory for these new comers. At the same time, when price is moving in sideways, it gives those who are waiting on the sideline, ready to enter, to gradually accept the price. Generally, as long as price is still staying above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, there is still a chance of the uptrend to extend its rally.

4 Q Rolling PER

23.64 times

Dividend Yield

1.93%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/06/2010

3.1 sen

2.82%

 10.19%

31/06/2009

3.6 sen

3.30%

 8.35%

31/06/2008

3.1 sen

2.31%

 9.49%

31/06/2007

2.2 sen

1.17%

 10.26%

31/06/2006

3.6 sen

6.67%

 12.83%

Table 2: DIALOG – 7277, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

TGOFFS – 7228: Technical rebound in downtrend.


Chart 3: TGOFFS – 7228 as at 15/12/2010.

As shown on chart 3, the price trend of Tgoffs is exactly the reverse of Kencana or Dialog. Although price of Tgoffs rebounded recently, it is only a technical rebound from a downtrend movement. This is not yet a reversal.

As indicated by A, price of Tgoffs rebounded after being supported by the RM1.33 support; however, it is resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is serving as the dynamic resistance. Technically, provided that price is trending below the dynamic resistance, the technical outlook is expected on the negative side.

Meanwhile, we have to know that when stock price is falling in a downtrend, there are more losers than there are winners, and these losers are mostly regretted of buying too early, and some of them are getting ready to get out. Therefore, the selling pressure during a downtrend is higher. In other words, it is harder for price to move up or reverse in a downtrend. Many attempted to “out-guess” others by trying to be the “first” to ride the reversal, but many failed, and these traders are now responsible for creating those negative memories of the same downtrend.

If price should remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later break below RM1.33, it means that every one in the downtrend, even those who managed to buy at the lowest RM1.33 will be losing money. Therefore, a new low is not a good thing. Next support is seen at RM1.24.

4 Q Rolling PER

36.24 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

0 sen

0.00%

 0.75%

31/12/2008

6 sen

6.52%

 5.57%

31/12/2007

0 sen

0.00%

 5.47%

31/12/2006

3 sen

1.01%

 6.23%

31/12/2005

3 sen

1.52%

 7.83%

Table 3: TGOFFS – 7228, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Other Related Oil and Gas Companies:

Companies

Technical Reading

[SAPCRES – 8575]

Remains above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and in an uptrend.

[RAMUNIA – 7206]

Testing RM0.45 resistance.

[PERISAI – 0047]

Remains in a trading range.

[SCOMI - 7158]

Short term technical rebound.

[ALAM - 5115]

Fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and now technically rebounding, but testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

[WASEONG - 5142]

Technical rebound, but downtrend remains intact.

[DAYANG -5141]

Consolidating in an uptrend.

Conclusion:


To conclude, one should buy with an uptrend, and never try to buy cheap. In fact, it will eventually cost you more when you attempt to buy cheap or being cheap.












Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

SAPCRES, RAMUNIA, PERISAI

Despite alternative fuels are being introduced, the demand for crude oil and crude oil related products remains high for the long run. Therefore, the oil and gas sector is still a sector worth looking at. However, this does not mean that all oil and gas related companies are good pick. Therefore, before picking up any counters, one should carefully study the behaviors and look for the one that is moving. Here are some examples:

SAPCRES – 8575: Remains in an uptrend.


Chart 1: SAPCRES – 8575 as at 15/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, since breaking above the RM2.45 resistance on the 25th of October, price of Sapcres remains in an uptrend, and supported by the 14, 21, 31 Exponential Moving Average – EMA, dynamic support. Meanwhile, it is clearly noticeable that the characteristic of the price movement in the uptrend, which is formation of higher-lows. In other words, every time the stock price retreat as a correction and it rebounded, forming a turning point, but this turning point is higher than the previous turning point.

Technically, if price should stay above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, with continuation of the higher-low formation, the uptrend is still intact. As long as the trailing stops using the 14, 21, 31 EMA is in place, the risk of holding this uptrend is likely to be low. As a general rule, when price is moving in an uptrend, the idea of a trailing stop is to raise your stop loss or profit taking level gradually according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA level. Immediate resistance for Sapcres is seen at RM3.00

4 Q Rolling PER

18.90 times

Dividend Yield

2.39%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/01/2010

7 sen

2.97%

5.23%

31/01/2009

5 sen

6.71%

3.32% 

31/01/2008

2 sen

1.33%

3.46%

31/01/2007

2 sen

2.78%

-1.00% 

31/01/2006

3 sen

3.73%

4.13%

Table 1: SAPCRES – 8575, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

RAMUNIA – 7206: Testing RM0.45 Resistance. *




Chart 2: RAMUNIA – 7206 as at 15/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, price of Ramunia is picking up some strenght lately, and forming a higher-low. However, it is still capped under the RM0.45 resistance, and as a result, the upside room remains limited, unless price could break above the RM0.45 successfully, then only the uptrend could sustain.

Price of Ramunia tested the RM0.45 on the 9th of December, and retreated since then. As indicated by A, if price of Ramunia could rebound from the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it would form another higher-low, but the important key factor is still the break out above the RM0.45 resistance.

As for those who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold as long as the price is above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. As price is rising, gradually lift the cutloss of profit taking level accordingly to the 14, 21, 31 EMA. As for those who are looking for an entry, it is better to wait for a valid break out, since the distance of the breakout from the 14, 21, 31 EMA is not far away.

* Please note that Ramunia is currently a PN17 status Company.

4 Q Rolling PER

4.06 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/10/2010

0 sen

0.00%

195%

31/10/2009

0 sen

0.00%

-15.48%

31/10/2008

0 sen

0.00%

-77.55% 

31/10/2007

0 sen

0.00%

3.37% 

31/10/2006

0 sen

0.00%

5.02% 

Table 2: RAMUNIA – 7206, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

PERISAI – 0047: Remains in a trading range.


Chart 3: PERISAI – 0047 as at 15/12/2010.

Chart 1 of Sapcres is showing the characteristic of a strong uptrend, while chart 2 of Ramunia is showing an uptrend just forming but with limited upside room. As for chart 3, it is an example of a trading range, in which it has not form any trend yet. As shown on chart 3, price of Perisai rebound from the RM0.495 level on the 6th of December, and therefore, it avoided the formation of a downtrend.

Although it does not form a downtrend, it does not form any uptrend yet. Technically, price must first break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then form a higher-low with strong volume, then only these are the characteristics of an ideal uptrend.

Furthermore, the RM0.57~RM 0.59 is the next important resistance for Perisai, and as it is shown on the chart 3, price of Perisai was resisted many times at this level. Technically, this means that there are many negative memory at this level, where many traders or investors lose money at this level. Therefore, the selling pressure is likely to be high. This also explains why it is easier for a stock to move higher when it is trading in an uptrend, and it is usually harder for a reversal when a stock is falling in a downtrend. Because of negative memories.

4 Q Rolling PER

0 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

0 sen

0.00%

32.60%

31/12/2008

0 sen

0.00%

20.98%

31/12/2007

0 sen

0.00%

7.55%

31/12/2006

0 sen

0.00%

4.28%

31/12/2005

2 sen

1.65%

13.49%

Table 3: PERISAI – 0047, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Other Related Oil and Gas Companies:

Companies

Technical Reading

[KENCANA - 5122]

Remains above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and in an uptrend.

[DIALOG - 7277]

Remains above the 14, 21, 31 EMA and in an uptrend.

[TGOFFS - 7228]

Technical rebound in a downtrend, and testing 14, 21, 31 EMA.

[SCOMI - 7158]

Short term technical rebound.

[ALAM - 5115]

Fell below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and now technically rebounding, but testing the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

[WASEONG - 5142]

Technical rebound, but downtrend remains intact.

[DAYANG -5141]

Consolidating in an uptrend.

Conclusion:

Not only we should equipped our selves with the skills of technical analysis, we must need to understand the market sentiment and psychology as well, and never try to catch any cheap stocks while they are falling. It's rather easier to say than to execute, and to be confident in our own analysis is another thing that many are yet to achieve. It takes years of careful studies, and we gradually nurture our patience, before there is a chance of succeed in the stock market.










Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

SPSetia, Mudajaya, Kossan

The KLCI has fallen below the 14, 21, 31 EMA briefly, but it managed to rebound and returned to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Therefore, the technical outlook for the KLCI is now back to positive. In other words, this means that the uptrend since March of 2009 until now is still intact. However, whether or not if the uptrend could be extended, we will have to see if the KLCI could take out the resistance at 1532. Meanwhile, total market volume is relatively lower, and this suggests that the investors confidence is at the border line. If volume should stay thin, the overall market sentiment will be affected as well.

Revision of Last Week's Case Study: SPSETIA – 8664: Breaking above RM5.30 resistance.


Chart 1: SPSETIA – 8664 as at 08/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, price of Spsetia has been consolidating recently, and tested the RM 5.30 resistance level many times. Meanwhile, as price was testing the resistance, it was also supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, which was rising gradually. This suggests that Spsetia is still on an uptrend, but only with limited upside room.

As indicated by A, price of Spsetia broke above the RM5.30 resistance, and this suggests that it is breaking away from its consolidation and continue its uptrend. Therefore, for those who are already in position, it is a good idea to hold as long as the price if still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

In other words, investors could gradually lift the cutloss or profit taking point according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and this not only limit the downside risk, and at the same time, try to maximize the potential of the uptrend.

4 Q Rolling PER

23.33 times

Dividend Yield

2.61%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/10/2009

14 sen

3.62%

 12.16%

31/10/2008

17 sen

6.12%

 16.07%

31/10/2007

18.4 sen

2.36%

 22.54%

31/10/2006

22.5 sen

5.74%

 20.81%

31/10/2005

25 sen

6.79%

 16.11%

Table 1: SPSETIA – 8664, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Mudajaya – 5085: New low.


Chart 2: Mudajaya – 5085 as at 08/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, price of Mudajaya is trending down in the few months, and at the same time, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the dynamic resistance. Technically, with price falling below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook is expected to stay weak, and it is a risky move to try to catch any rebound in the downtrend.

Although price of Mudajaya rebounded at RM3.94, it has failed to break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and in fact, after being resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it started falling again and even breaking below the RM3.94, making a new low.

(Study A)

When a stock price is making new low, it seems like it is at the 'cheapest' price, and therefore, many untrained investors think that it is the lowest price and starts buying. However, after they had bought, they only realize that it is not the lowest at all, and price could go down even lower. In fact, they had missed out that making new-low is one of the important characteristics of a downtrend.

In other words, when a stock is trending down, its losing days will naturally out numbered its winning days, and therefore, it is much easier to buy at a lower price. Nevertheless, next support for Mudajaya is seen at RM3.32 and the resistance is at 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic resistance.

4 Q Rolling PER

7.98 times

Dividend Yield

0.94%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

3.6 sen

0.73%

 16.24%

31/12/2008

4.5 sen

3.98%

 10.68%

31/12/2007

8 sen

2.03%

 11.00%

31/12/2006

7 sen

4.93%

 5.68%

31/12/2005

6 sen

5.31%

 4.20%

Table 2: Mudajaya – 5085, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Kossan – 7153: Forming Symmetrical Triangle.


Chart 3: Kossan – 7153 as at 08/12/2010.

As shown on chart 3, since falling below RM4.00 as well as the 14, 21, 31 EMA in July, price of Kossan has been trending down, and had its recent low at RM2.95. Fortunately, it rebounded and break away from its downtrend. However, after breaking above its downtrend, it does not mean that it will form an uptrend right away. In fact, most of the time, price would prolong their consolidation after breaking away from their downtrend, and in this case, it formed a Symmetrical Triangle.

L1 line is the dynamic resistance line and it is outlining the lower-highs, which shows a weakness of this stock. At the same time, L2 is the dynamic support, which outlines the higher-lows, and this shows the improvement of the stock movement. As a result, L1 and L2 line are conflicting each other, thus the price fluctuating within this two line and resulted in a decline of volatility.

Technically, it is a good idea to wait and see during a Symmetrical Triangle formation, until a valid break out above the L1 line, then it suggests a positive signal. Of course, the positive signal has to be confirmed with strong volume. On the other hand, if price should break below the L2 line, it means a negative signal, and it means that price would resume its downtrend.

4 Q Rolling PER

5.83 times

Dividend Yield

1.55%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

5.13 sen

0.75%

 8.04%

31/12/2008

6 sen

2.14%

 6.63%

31/12/2007

5.82 sen

0.75%

 8.04%

31/12/2006

0 sen

0.00%

 6.90%

31/12/2005

6 sen

3.08%

 7.59%

Table 3: Kossan – 7153, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

As the KLCI managed to climb back to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, the overall marke t sentiment has turned back to positive, and many individual counters are also returning to their uptrend. However, it is still important not to catch cheap stocks which are falling. The correct way is to buy stocks that are resuming their uptrend.







Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

DRBHCOM, IJMLand, GAB

Last week, the KLCI extended its rebound, and returned to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA. This has lifted the KLCI technical outlook back to positive, and at the same time, many individual counters were also back on their uptrend, some even making new high.

Revision of Last Week's Case Study: DRBHCOM – 1619: Short term over-heated.


Chart 1: DRBHCOM – 1619 as at 08/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, after breaking above the RM1.30 resistance again, price of DRBHCOM resumes its uptrend, and at the same time, the rally is being supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. However, as indicated by A, price of DRBHCOM is breaking above the 20-day Bollinge Upper Band, and this suggests that the short term movement is indeed very strong, but it is showing over-heating condition.

Technically, if price should rally too quickly and break above the 20-day Bollinger Upper Band, it is an over-heated signal, as investors are likely to take profit, and as a result, a pull-back is likely to take place in the near future.

Nevertheless, despite a chance of a pull-back, the over-heated condition is rather normal. As long as the price of DRBHCOM is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA after the possible pull-back effect, it is still a good idea to hold as the uptrend is still intact. Of course, if one should feel uncomfortable with the over-heated signal, he or she could consider taking profit partially, by selling 1/3 of the position. Next resistance for DRBHCOM is at RM1.88 while the support remains at 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support.

4 Q Rolling PER

5.03 times

Dividend Yield

2.35%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/03/2010

4 sen

4.12%

 7.48%

31/03/2009

15.83 sen

22.94%

 10.83%

31/03/2008

5 sen

3.94%

7.27%

31/03/2007

3.5 sen

1.79%

 3.27%

31/03/2006

2 sen

1.39%

 -5.79%

Table 1: DRBHCOM – 1619, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

IJMLand – 5215: Technical correction in an uptrend.


Chart 2: IJMLand – 5215 as at 08/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, price of IJMLand has recently high its high of RM 3.25, but as investors begun to take profit, it causes the price to pull back and consolidated. However, as price of IJMLand was consolidating, it was still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA dynamic support, and this suggests that the uptrend is still intact.

As indicated by A, although price of IJMLand was supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it has failed to return to its recent high of RM3.25, and it is possible to form a lower-high. But as long as it is still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, it is too soon to call for any reversal.

In other words, investors should take caution at this situation, and honor their original trading plan. If price should later break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then the uptrend would be affected, and if one should feel uncomfortable, he or she could take profit partially.

However, we can determine that if price of IJMLand would immediate turn into a downtrend if the 14, 21, 31 EMA is violated, and don't forget that there is a good chance that price of IJMLand would prolong its sideways consolidation, which will result in price breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Immediate resistance for IJMLand is at RM3.25, as for the support, it is seen at RM 2.70.

4 Q Rolling PER

26.65 times

Dividend Yield

0.67%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/03/2010

2 sen

0.97%

 9.87%

31/03/2009

0 sen

0.00%

 7.62%

31/03/2008

0 sen

0.00%

 14.13%

31/03/2007

0 sen

0.00%

 -2.76%

31/03/2006

0 sen

0.00%

 9.07%

Table 2: IJMLand – 5215, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

GAB – 3255: Firmly on uptrend.


Chart 3: GAB – 3255 as at 08/12/2010. (Weekly Chart)

As shown on chart 3, price of GAB remains in its long term uptrend, and even breaking new high. The 14, 21, 31 Weekly EMA shown on chart is the long term dynamic support for GAB.

Generally, a weekly chart is suitable for stocks that has a lower volatility, and longer term trend.

If stock like GAB is analyzed using daily chart, there would be many whipsaws, or false signal, and as a result, the analysis will be less effective. Especially those counters which pay out high dividend, one wish to hold their trend for as long as possible.

Based on the fundamental of GAB, we can safely say that this is a high yield stock, and therefore, it is one of the good choices for long term investment. If price of GAB should stay in an uptrend, then the only logic thing to do it so hold while collecting the regular dividend. Technically, as long as price of GAB could stay above ethe 14, 21, 31 Weekly EMA, the uptrend shall remains intact.

4 Q Rolling PE

18.20 times

Dividend Yield

4.54%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

30/06/2010

45 sen

5.56%

 11.24%

30/06/2009

41 sen

6.72%

 11.05%

30/06/2008

44 sen

8.38%

 10.54%

30/06/2007

45 sen

7.63%

 10.50%

30/06/2006

42 sen

7.71%

 13.13%

Table 3: GAB – 3255, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

The improvement of the KLCI technical outlook has lifted many individual counters performance, as well as the overall market sentiment. But as for those that are now over-heated, a chance of some profit taking is high, thus investors are advised to follow their own trading and cut loss plan with caution.







Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

SPSetia, Bursa, UEMLand

With the KLCI having a technical correction, many individual counters are having correction or consolidation too. Technically, it is too soon to call for any bearish trend or a reversal. However, we have to know that all reversal started with a technical correction, and if the KLCI (or the broad market) should failed to return to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later forming lower-highs, then the risk of a downtrend will be greater.

SPSETIA – 8664: Continue testing RM 5.30 resistance.


Chart 1: SPSETIA – 8664 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown on chart 1, after being resisted by the RM5.30 on the 27th of October, price of Spsetia entered a consolidation stage, but still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, thus the technical outlook remains positive, but with limited upside room, unless a break out above RM5.30

.

During the consolidation, price of Spsetia tested the RM5.30 few times, and on the 29th of November, it had an intra-day high reaching RM5.50, breaking above RM5.30. However, as investor rushed to take profit, price was pulled back below RM5.30, and the break out was failed.

Nevertheless, with price supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the overall technical outlook is still positive; and also, since price is still testing the RM5.30 resistance, it is still a good idea to hold, as long as the 14, 21, 31 EMA trailing stop method is still in place.

In other words, if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, then the uptrend will be affected, but it does not mean that it would form a downtrend immediately, unless price should form lower-highs. Nevertheless, if price should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, investors can choose to take profit partially.

4 Q Rolling PER

22.81 times

Dividend Yield

2.67%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/10/2009

15 sen

3.62%

12.16%

31/10/2008

17 sen

6.12%

16.07%

31/10/2007

18.4 sen

2.36%

22.54%

31/10/2006

22.5 sen

5.74%

20.81%

31/10/2005

25 sen

6.79%

16.11%

Table 1: SPSETIA – 8664, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision of last week's case study: Bursa – 1818: Short term movement remains weak.


Chart 2: Bursa – 1818 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, ever since breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of Bursa remains in a short term downtrend, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA remain serving as the dynamic resistance. Technically, as long as the price is below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook shall remain weak.

As individual by A, price of Bursa is testing the RM7.99 or RM8.00, and this is the 50% Fibonacci Retracement line, and generally, it is an important support level. If price should rebound from this level, price of Bursa is expected to consolidate.

Nevertheless, when price is having a technical rebound, it does not mean that the downtrend is over, and catching a rebound is a risky move. This is because if price should rebound but still resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and later forms a lower-high, it means that the downtrend is still intact.

In short, there is no buy signal until a valid break out above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, or at least a formation of a higher-low. If price should break below RM8.00, then the next support is at RM7.58.

4 Q Rolling PER

22.96

Dividend Yield

2.46%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

19.10 sen

2.46%

44.13%

31/12/2008

24.30 sen

4.72%

31.48%

31/12/2007

85.00 sen

5.94%

41.55%

31/12/2006

54.50 sen

6.77%

42.13%

31/12/2005

20.00 sen

5.46%

42.13%

Table 2: Bursa – 1818, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

UEMLAND – 5184: Short term weakness.


Chart 3: UEMLAND – 5184 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown on chart 3, after breaking below the 14, 21, 31 EMA on the 16th of November, price of UEMland remains resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, as indicated by A, and the 14, 21, 31 EMA is now serving as a dynamic resistance.

Technically, when price is falling below the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook is on the negative side, despite a sign of a technical rebound after touching RM 2.09 last week. Unless price could break above the 14, 21, 31 EMA successfully, catching a rebound is usually risky. If price should resisted by the 14, 21, 31 EMA after a rebound, it could be forming another lower-high, which is the characteristic of a downtrend.

4 Q Rolling PER

36.41 times

Dividend Yield

0.00%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

0 sen

0.00%

28.44%

31/12/2008

0 sen

0.00%

14.50%

Table 3: UEMLAND – 5184, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:

Although it is still too soon for call for any bear market, it pays to be prudent, and watch out for the negative signals and clues. This is because a downtrend does not form in a day, it is formed with continuation of lower-highs. With that in mind, buying low, or trying to catch a bottom, will eventually resulted in buying in to a downtrend.







Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。

DRBHCOM, MMCCorp, Muhibah

Although the KLCI had a technical correction recently, and even broken below the 14, 21, 31 Exponential Moving Average – EMA briefly, the down fall of the KLCI was rather mild, thus not yet affecting the overall long term uptrend of the KLCI. Therefore, it is really too soon to call for any bearish signal. However, all downtrend or bear market started with the formation of lower-highs, and if the KLCI should break below the 14, 21, 31 EMA again, and continue with lower-highs formation, ther risk of a bearish reversal would be higher.

DRBHCOM – 1619: Breaking above RM1.30 again.


Chart 1: DRBHCOM – 1619 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown in chart 1, price of DRBHCOM once broke above the RM1.30 resistance on the 10th of October, but due to profit taking, price of DRBHCOM failed to stay above RM1.30. Fortunately, price pulled back to the 14, 21, 31 EMA level and rebounded, and consolidated then.

As indicated by A, after consolidating for about 2 weeks above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, price of DRBHCOM rallied again, and this time, breaking above the RM1.30. If price should remain supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the uptrend shall continue, and it is a good idea to hold as long as the price is above the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

4 Q Rolling PER

4 times

Dividend Yield

2.90%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/03/2010

4 sen

4.12%

 7.48%

31/03/2009

15.83 sen

22.94%

 10.83%

31/03/2008

5 sen

3.94%

 7.27%

31/03/2007

3.5 sen

1.79%

 3.27%

31/03/2006

2 sen

1.39%

 -5.79%

Table 1: DRBHCOM – 1619, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Revision on last week's case study: MMCCorp – 2194: Still in downtrend channel.


Chart 2: MMCCorp – 2194 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown on chart 2, price of MMCCorp remains in its downtrend channel, with the T1 line being the dynamic resistance and the T2 line being the dynamic support. Meanwhile, the 14, 21, 31 EMA is also serving as the dynamic resistance.

As indicated by A, price of MMCCorp stopped at T2, and this implies that there is a chance of a technical rebound at this level. However, despite the chance of a rebound, as long as price is still below the T1 line or the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical outlook for MMCCorp is still on the negative side. It is usually a risky move to try to catch any rebound.

Technically, there are no ideal buy signal at the moment, until price could break away from the downtrend and form a higher-low.

4 Q Rolling PER

24.19 times

Dividend Yield

1.09%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

3 sen

1.22%

 2.80%

31/12/2008

2.5 sen

2.40%

 6.17%

31/12/2007

5 sen

0.54%

 9.64%

31/12/2006

9 sen

2.23%

 13.74%

31/12/2005

0.6 sen

0.30%

 19.74%

Table 2: MMCCorp – 2194, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

MUHIBAH – 5703: Rebounding from the dynamic support.


Chart 3: MUHIBAH – 5703 as at 01/12/2010.

As shown on chart 3, price of Muhibah was consolidating for about 2 weeks, and still supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA, which is serving as a dynamic support. As for those who are already in position, it is fine to hold as long as price is supported by the 14, 21, 31 EMA. Provided that you should gradually lift your trailing stop level (profit taking or cut loss level) according to the 14, 21, 31 EMA.

As for those who are looking for an entry, it is crucial to only buy when price started rising above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, and apply the 14, 21, 31 EMA as a trailing top after buying.

Despite technically, the immediate technical outlook remains positive, it requires more volume to push price higher or even just to sustain the uptrend. If volume shall remains low, chances of a rally is also low, and the RM1.40 will likely be a strong resistance.

4 Q Rolling PER

27.74 times

Dividend Yield

1.94%

Dividend

Dividend Yield

Net Profit Ratio

31/12/2009

2.5 sen

2.72%

 0.64%

31/12/2008

2.5 sen

2.53%

 1.02%

31/12/2007

4.50 sen

1.20%

 4.94%

31/12/2006

7.50 sen

2.88%

 3.06%

31/12/2005

4.00 sen

5.76%

 2.68%

Table 3: MUHIBAH – 5703, yearly dividend, dividend yield, and net profit ratio.

Conclusion:
Many individual counters are having technical correction, and the overall market direction is now somewhat unclear. However, with the KLCI returning to above the 14, 21, 31 EMA, the technical picture overall is still looking positive. As long as a sound trading plan is in place, and one is following his own trading plan, the risk of trading is still manageable.






Copyright © 2009 Straits Index (M) Sdn BhdImportant Disclaimer:These content provided by Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd is solely for education and information purposes only, and do not suggest any investment advices. All information displayed are believed to be accurate and reliable. Interpretation of the data or analysis is at the reader's own risk. Straits Index (M) Sdn Bhd reserves the rights but obligations to update, admen, or even terminate the materials. 重要声明:以上的内容由海峡指数(马)私人有限公司提供,纯粹是教育性质, 并不是任何的投资忠告。所有资料显示认为是准确和可靠的。对数据或分析的解释和用途是在于用户自己的风险。海峡指数(马)有限公司持有保留及义务更新,甚 至终止材料的权利。